Saturday, September 3, 2011

Singapore's energy options: Relooking the nuclear energy option

Please take part in the poll on nuclear power  Many thanks! -->


A power struggle of sorts is developing between Malaysia and Singapore to be the first to build and operate a nuclear powerplant.

Singapore must keep its eye on nuclear power options because the strategic disadvantages of being second to market could imperil the city-state's energy security.

In the post-Fukushima era, nuclear power is hardly a vote-generating idea. Japan and Germany have both pledged to reduce their reliance on nuclear power after the March 2011 tsunami in Japan contaminated parts of Japan with radiation from damaged nuclear power plants.

Whether we like it or not, natural gas fields that fire up turbines in Singapore's power stations are expected to be exhausted in about 20 years' time. This is a blink of an eye when seen in terms of the planning cycle needed to introduce an alternative form of energy, be it from a renewable (solar, wind, tides) or non-renewable source (oil, coal, gas).

To sit back and do the politically expedient by steering clear of the nuclear question would bring back the same strategic problems posed by the water problem.

With Singapore gradually weaning itself of dependence on freshwater from Malaysia's Johor state, botched planning in energy security could drive Singapore once again towards Malaysia for a strategic resource. In this case, energy.

The first country to add a nuclear power station to its power grid will guarantee its citizens a stable and safe source of energy. Cut through the screaming rhetoric from greenies and you will realise that post-Fukushima nuclear reactors are designed with more fail safes and with a far higher standard of reliability and mean time between failure for critical components than the 1970s-vintage reactors installed at the Fukushima facilities.

Depending on the power-generating capacity of the reactors installed in the Sin-Mal-Indo triangle, the first to market could end up selling surplus power to its neighbour at an unbeatable price per kilowatt hour.

The appeal of such pricing will rise as the last cubic metre of natural gas is sucked out of the earth.

A Singapore government in a state of decision paralysis about nuclear energy may indeed be forced to hitch the city-state's energy grid to Malaysia's nuclear powered Tenaga Nasional someday.

When that day comes, a flick of a switch up north is all it takes to get this little red dot to behave.

Singapore has walked the nuclear energy road before. In the 1970s, the government sent a young physicist to England to study all he could about atomic power. The individual carried the future of Singapore's energy security on his shoulders and knew he was charting Singapore's future with the paper of recommendations he would help pen for the government.

To his credit, he wrote off his own future by recommending that Singapore steer clear of nuclear power. It is understood he did so because the 1970s era nuclear power was still being refined. Years of training in atomic power had thus been redundant. But it did not matter as the paper he wrote was for the long-term good of his country.

That selfless individual was the late Dr Tay Eng Soon - in my opinion an underrated politician who gave his all for Singapore in more ways than Singaporeans can imagine or appreciate. I have the highest respect for him.

Our country must once again face the nuclear question.

We should do so united, with our eyes scanning the far horizon and with our hearts in the right place.

We must address this topic with the same discipline demonstrated by Dr Tay.

Options in terms of real estate must be made ready even as the go/no go milestone has yet to be reached.

Opting for nuclear power means more than having enough juice to power up your computer screen years from now.

Our increasing reliance on desalinated water will suck up huge amounts of power to convert seawater into potable water for us to drink and to sustain our industries. Until someone can reinvent the desalination process, we must be prepared to crank up our national grid well in time for the expiry of the water agreement with Malaysia in 2061. Not to do so would be strategic lunacy.

Nuclear energy will also mean the Singapore Armed Forces and Home Team agencies such as the Singapore Police Force and Singapore Civil Defence Force must up their game substantially, quickly and professionally.

Our intelligence services must do so likewise and have another pot to watch.

We may need to train, organise, equip and support our version of the United States Nuclear Emergency Support Team (NEST) that can guarantee the safety of nuclear fuel. Specialised arms and equipment will need to be sourced and adapted to our tropical climate, along with SOPs for meting out deadly force on entities who may want to interfere with Singapore's nuclear energy cycle.

We need to upgrade our Police Coast Guard into an open-water force to accompany and escort nuclear fuel ships from fuel source to waste dump.

Infrastructure-wise, Singaporeans need not worry that a nuclear power station will be built next door.

This blog understands that Singapore has a site in mind for a reactor under Jurong Island. It is tunnelled some 130 metres below sea level in granite bedrock and is said to have chambers some 27 metres tall - three times the height of Resorts World Sentosa's 9-metre high car park for those of you who have been to there.(If you haven't, please visit to take a look.)

Energy planners must therefore stay the course and decide what's best for Singapore.

If and when the go signal is given, infrastructure should be ready and so should our security services.

This imponderable may test the mettle of the current government's persuasiveness with heartlanders and that outreach must start right now with the MIW being more open and consultative with its people.

Their biggest hurdle is whether the average Singaporean - this means you and I - will be mentally prepared to accept a nuclear reactor on our soil.

Are you?



Further reading on nuclear power on the blog:
The nuclear option for Singapore. Click here.

S'pore's new energy source: A nuke on your doorstep. Click here.

Nuclear energy for Singapore: A look at Singapore's information management and PR strategy for nuclear energy. Please read Part 1 here and Part 2 here.

Friday, September 2, 2011

The Government and the Media in Singapore

Interesting article about the 90 cents newspaper.

WikiLeaks: Significant gov’t pressure put on ST editors

By Yahoo! Singapore

SingaporeScene – A senior staff member of Singapore's largest newspaper admits there's "significant pressure" on its editors to follow the government line, according to a newly released WikiLeaks document.

As a result, reporters within the paper are "increasingly frustrated" with the restrictions on what they can report and often seek overseas postings where restrictions are less.

The document, which appears to be a written minute taken in 2009 at the Singapore Embassy, highlighted the private views of two Straits Times journalists and a then-journalism student.

Chua Chin Hon, who is currently the paper's US bureau chief, was quoted as saying that reporters have to be careful in their coverage of local news, as Singapore's leaders will "likely come down hard" on anyone
who reports negatively about the government or its leadership.

Without naming names, he also recounted how several ministers at the time "routinely call editors" to ensure that media coverage of an issue "comes out the way they want it."

Chua also said that ST editors had been vetted to ensure their "pro-government leanings" and that while local reporters are "eager to produce more investigative and critical reporting... they are stifled by editors who have been groomed to tow the line."

In the WikiLeaks cable, Chua pointed out how there is extensive media coverage before the government intends to push out a certain policy, adding that some articles read like "Public Service Announcements".

He cited how during the 2008 collapse of Lehman brothers, there was a spate of articles writing about the retirees who lost money in the mini-bonds in a sympathetic manner, and this was followed by the government's decision to assist those retirees.

Singapore's largest newspaper has often been criticised for its pro-government stance.

Another reporter, Lynn Lee, who is currently the paper's Indonesian bureau chief, confirmed the restrictions on local media, highlighting the internal editorial debate over the covering of the opposition in Singapore.

An example she gave was the conflict over the amount of coverage that the paper would dedicate to opposition icon J.B. Jeyaretnam (JBJ) following his death in September 2008, saying that while editors agreed with reporters' demand for extensive coverage of his funeral, they rejected reporters' suggestions to limit the amount of coverage devoted to eulogies provided by Singapore's leaders.

In the end, the leaders' statements took up a significant portion of the allotted space, Lee said.

In addition, Lee revealed that self-censorship was a common practice for reporters.

She said that she would never write about any racially sensitive issues, citing the case of a journalist in Malaysia who was arrested for reprinting a politician's racially charged comments.

In contrast to the limitations imposed on local reports, Chua said that the paper's reporters are more free to write about international events. Chua said he enjoyed a great deal of freedom during his stint as China Bureau Chief.

The leaked cable also contained the views of then-journalism student Chong Zi Liang, who said he could see himself working locally for one or two years before going off somewhere else, because he thought it was too "stifling" to remain in the country.

The document is part of a collection of 251,000 unedited and confidential US diplomatic cables that can be found on the whistle-blowing WikiLeaks website, founded by Julian Assange.

In the latest batch released online, several more can be found about Singapore.

One talks about the state of Singapore's opposition in 2004 and another on how the government actively co-opts talented Muslims to become Members of Parliament.

Last year, WikiLeaks revealed what key Singapore diplomats thought of neighbouring Asian leaders as well as what former leader Lee Kuan Yew thinks about North Korea.

Saturday, August 27, 2011

Presidential Election 2011: Close of polls

Polling stations for the Presidential Election have just closed.

Results of today's poll would prove or disprove the value of online opinion polls such as the ones posted regularly by Yahoo Singapore on hot topics du jour.

If real world matches virtual world, campaign strategists from all interest groups would likely sit up and take notice.

If there's a disjoint, then it would show that sentiments expressed on the Internet do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the so-called silent majority. The impact of such a result on hearts and minds strategies would be significant because they are likely to desensitise the system against Internet chatter.

Prior to the 7 May 2011 General Election, the MIW tended to discount virtual world feedback as unreliable, mischievious and unworthy of attention as the vast majority were penned anonymously. Go look at discussion threads in Hardwarezone and Yahoo Singapore, click on the profiles and you will be hard pressed to find any netizens who write in their real name.

The vote swing against the MIW made them reconsider this point of view. Post GE 2011, the word "engage" suddenly became a catch phrase among the MIW.

Before the next sunrise, we will find out if opinions expressed during the run up to the PE has resulted in campaigns won or lost.

In my opinion, the ground has not been sweet for Dr Tony Tan - the only former Defence Minister to make a bid for the highest office in the land.

If Dr Tan's vote count puts him first past the post, this victory would likely embolden the MIW to downplay, belittle or ignore the Internet as a feedback channel.

Like a one song band, they are likely to continue using Facebook to engage you on your side of the computer screen. The MIW's FB presence serves as a pressure valve, allowing netizens to vent their spleen on a host of issues. But as Maplewoods residents have learned, it would otherwise be business as usual.

Dr Tan's mathematician mind has probably worked out the permutations of a four-horse race and one hopes his election machinery has given the former Deputy Prime Minister a credible assessment of street talk.

Dr Tan will be hard-pressed to win this election as Dr Tan Cheng Bock is likely to give him a hard fight. This is based on ground sensing this past week.

Mistakes include what I see as a mishandling of the White Horse issue. After all is said and done, netizens want to know if the 12 years it took for one of Dr Tan's sons to complete his full-time NS was unprecedented. If it wasn't and other mother's sons also enjoyed this opportunity, the TT camp and the Singaporean Ministry of Defence (MINDEF) should have just said it, backed the statement with figures. Thus assured, most Singaporeans would have moved on.

No amount of counter arguments issued by Dr Tan's sons can match credible statistics on deferments which would kill vicious Internet chit chat over what some Singaporeans see as a World Record deferment (i.e. 12 years to complete full-time National Service).

From an information management standpoint, Dr Tan's sons should realise that the vast majority of Singaporeans (this blogger included) have never heard of them nor their career milestones prior to the PE. Now, we do.

So who spilled the beans?

Someone close to, or familiar with, their social circumstances must have been responsible. The Tan brothers, now grown up, need to reflect deeply on how they carried themselves since their NS days and ask themselves hand-on-heart if their mannerisms and social behaviour had offended Singaporeans along the way. Their friends and frenemies would know that answer.

In defence-speak, their OODA loop has been compromised. In my opinion, the Tan brothers should have brought things back on track by convincing Singaporeans that their respective NS stints not only fulfilled NS to the letter of the law but also to the spirit of laws governing NS.

In my view, their two replies danced around the three fundamental tenets of NS which are equity, universality and critical national need. Please read this landmark speech on NS delivered on 16 January 2006 by former Defence Minister Teo Chee Hean here.

Dr Tan is outraged political capital has been made from the White Horse issue. But so are many netizens who want and are entitled to know that the system they support treats every Singaporean son fairly.

By all means shoot the messenger(s) for bringing up the White Horse issue, damn them for trying to sabotage Dr Tan's PE bid but never overlook the heartlanders who have been following the issue and feel the replies on the White Horse issue failed to address nagging concerns.

Without proper closure and in the absence of reasoned debate, this issue will continue to haunt Dr Tan. Regardless of whether TT becomes our next President, MINDEF must be prepared to soak up collateral damage whenever netizens go on the war path.

We could go on and on about hits and misses in the former DPM/DM's election campaign or catch some shut eye ahead of the poll results.

Let's go for the latter and regroup later.


Note: This commentary was written before polls closed on 27 August 2011 and has been timed to go "live" at 2000 hrs Hotel. Comments on your polling day experience are welcome, as always.

Sunday, August 21, 2011

Singapore Presidential Election 2011: First Ladies in waiting

Your vote for Singapore's Elected President is a two-for-one offer.

This is why you have Mr President and the First Lady staring at you whenever you visit any government department.

The spouses of Presidential Election candidates must be prepared to step up to the status befitting a First Lady. This is different from being a politician's wife, who can stay safely out of reach of the paparazzi or busybody journalists.

The New Paper on Sunday, 21 August 2011, Page 4

The decision by Dr Tony Tan's camp to stay out of The New Paper's Sunday feature on the four women who could be our next First Lady is not an enlightened one.

In mature democracies, the First Lady serves a hugely important role in society and in supporting the office of the President, both in domestic and international affairs.


I am sure many of you have heard of Barbara Bush, Hillary Clinton, Laura Bush (top, meeting Singaporean children and doing the same with American students) and Michelle Obama and their role in American statecraft.

My personal favourite is Eleanor Roosevelt, whose public appearances during the Depression era brought much cheer to American workers. It is said that her visits to frontline troops in the Pacific during WW2 did the same and helped raise morale immensely.

Wives who aspire to support and strengthen their husband's PE campaign chances must realise the status of First Lady in a First World Parliament comes with duties and responsibilities that entail personal sacrifices.

Signalling that one is not ready for the role sends a wrong message to potential supporters.

The last thing I want in a First Lady is a perfect stranger who comes out of hibernation during Istana open houses for that grip-and-grin photo opportunity, only to slink away into the corridors of power when no longer needed.

You must project self-confidence and a readiness to stand by and serve Singaporeans in good times and especially in bad times. How would Singaporeans know you are willing and able to do so if they do not know you better?

With campaigning for the Presidential Election at the halfway mark, the TT camp must quickly reappraise its campaign strategy to reassure Singaporeans that their First Lady aspirant is ready for the job.

The ground is not sweet and Dr Tan will need every vote he can get.

Security breach at SMRT Bishan depot: A rail security headache

The finger pointing between transport company SMRT and Evtec Management Services, a private security company hired to patrol its Bishan train depot, should be settled without delay.

A check with Evtec's terms of reference would settle the question of whether its guards had failed to patrol the fenceline where an intruder allegedly entered the protected area to vandalise SMRT rolling stock.

If Evtec lapsed, then withdraw the SIRD licenses of its guards and let the firm go belly up.

If SMRT doesn't even know where its out of bounds areas are, then we have a real problem with rail security.

SMRT's complacency is disappointing and a dangerous mindset that puts the lives of thousands of rail commuters at risk every day.

Rail security should have been raised immediately after 9/11 when it became apparent that foreign operatives had conducted a video reconnaissance of Yishun MRT station with a view to bombing the place.

Then came 11/3/2004 Madrin train bombings and the 7/7/2005 London bombings of the city's bus and Underground system.

Our security planners reacted the way most generals do: By planning to fight the last war.

And so with great fanfare and publicity, Exercise Northstar V was staged in January 2006. The exercise scenario was modelled after the tragedies in London. That wet weekend, Singaporeans had to endure minor disruptions at key transport nodes in the city state.

Amid reassuring statements by security gurus, the security of our train depots went under the radar. We had tackled a London Bombing Redux and Singaporeans were persuaded they could all sleep well at night.

It took a train vandal to expose flaws in rail security.


Enter Oliver Fricker, a 33-year-old Swiss national who trespassed into SMRT's Changi depot to spray paint train carriages there in May 2010.

We now hear that history has repeated itself at the SMRT depot in Bishan.

Having vandals express their artistry on train carriages is a minor irritation compared to the possibility that hostile elements might infiltrate the said depots to plant time bombs on rolling stock.

With the kind of mindset SMRT has displayed time and again, we would probably have to wait for terrorists to turn SMRT trains into coffins on tracks before the company stops pushing out excuses and takes proactive action.

Is this how things are done in this country? That it takes someone to die before people take action just like it took the death of one Indonesian teenager before months of delays in putting up drain railings were finally resolved?

The rail security headache is one that warrants urgent attention, not platitudes we have heard before.

Hostile elements itching to strike the Lion City, whose reputation as a hard target raises its attractiveness as a trophy target, would probably be cheered by this weekend's news of the Bishan security breach.

A decade after 9/11, there are weak links they can exploit. And it's only a matter of time before they succeed.

How many wake-up calls does SMRT need before it does something about rail security?

Saturday, August 20, 2011

Singapore's Presidential Election 2011 to road test Freak Election Result theory, George Yeo Effect

Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) personnel should take more than a passing interest in the Presidential Election (PE) campaign because the Tan they will swear allegiance to will be voted in exactly a week from today.

This campaign is likely to road test the Freak Election Result theory. Indeed, a recent Yahoo poll showed that the candidate implicitly backed by the MIW did not come out tops.

You have to be living on another planet not to realise by now that the four PE candidates appear to fall into two distinct camps in a one-versus-three arrangement.

However hard they mouth their declarations of independence, the career legacy that is the basis for them standing in the first place is also their bugbear.

Dr Tony Tan's camp must have read and mulled over sentiments expressed on the Internet about his candidacy. The former Deputy Prime Minister's intimate links with the MIW continue to stoke online calls that the PE should be used to send yet another signal to the system that all is not well following the General Election this May.

If this theory pans out, four in 10 voters would likely turn their backs on Dr Tan.

How the remaining 60% of the electorate vote next Saturday is a surefire way to start a conversation with strangers in the heartlands.

Supporters from the other three camps, viz Dr Tan Cheng Bock, Mr Tan Jee Say and Mr Tan Kin Lian, have used their underdog image as a war cry for Singaporeans to vote in a President who can bring a fresh set of ideas to the Istana (To foreign readers, this is the President's office off Orchard Road).

Dr Tan's prospects are not helped by the fact that Singaporeans know the MIW government will remain in power for the next five years, whichever candidate they support. Flawed or not, matching such logic to the poor awareness of what the President's job really entails gives the Freak Election Result theory more traction.

Furthermore, the scenario of a rogue government spending the reserves is theoretical and unlikely under the 12th Parliament. And if a second key is needed to unlock reserves, logic would state that the key master shouldn't be cut from the same piece of cloth.

The fence-sitters during GE 2011 who cast a vote for the MIW because of selfish self-preservation (fear of losing a promotion if the system "finds out" they voted against the MIW) or out of fear that they might wake up to an alternative government no longer have to worry about this.

Which box they cross next Saturday makes voting patterns for this watershed PE too complex to call even for the bookies.

This is no GE as the government will remain intact whoever wins. But lingering resentment from GE 2011 has made some Singaporeans wonder if the system needs another wake-up call.

To be sure, the MIW have, in my sense of the matter, scored several own goals since the May election. The party Whip must rein in members to avoid stupid episodes such as Penny Low's implausible excuse after NDP 2011 (where, pray tell, is the FB entry?) and foot in mouth situations by Dr Lim Wee Kiat (over minister's pay) and Vikram Nair's baffling remarks over election results.

Above all, screen the MPs carefully and ensure outgoing MPs do not end up compromising newbies by sacking grassroots members days before a GE. Outgoing MIW MP Chan Soo Sen did just that in Joo Chiat and this upset grassroots members who volunteered their time to serve him. It poisoned ground support and the MIW very nearly lost that seat.

Some people feel the PE is a waste of time and public money. We already have a competent government and fully operational civil service, bloodied and tested in crisis of yesteryear like SARS and economic recessions, to formulate and roll-out public policy. Singaporeans therefore find statements by PE candidates who want to be a shadow Minister for Whatever baffling, if not redundant and self-serving. No prizes for guessing how they will vote.

Like it or not, PE results will mirror how people feel towards the MIW since GE 2011.

Check the winning votes. Whoever wins might end up with the dubious reputation as the least supported Elected President in Singapore's history.

And check the percentage of spoilt votes too. What would this figure signal?

Unresolved questions over the National Service (NS) record of Dr Tan's son, Patrick, and the tactic by candidates like TKL to use National Service as a talking point to draw attention to his candidacy are some of the defence themes that will come our way during the PE.

As Dr Tan previously held the Minister for Defence portfolio, the other three Tans must know that questions raised over defence matters, particularly hot potato issues like the need for and duration of NS, may dim the former DPM's election prospects.

Dr Tan could also fall prey to what I call the George Yeo Effect.

Some voters may be convinced that Dr Tan is the best man for the job. They may believe that his character, credentials and potential are rock solid. But as in the case of former Minister for Foreign Affairs George Yeo, who lost his seat in the five-seat Aljunied Group Representation Constituency (GRC), the electorate's clamour for someone to champion their views may outweigh all other considerations.

The other three Tans must be streetwise enough to realise this. We can therefore expect them to harp on their independent and somewhat renegade streak during their campaign speeches.

One thing's for sure: Whoever wins will get a front row seat to the SAF Day Parade next year when Singapore marks 45 years of National Service.


P.S. For those who are wondering, I have not decided who to vote for as of today.

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Singapore's Defence ministry replies to mother's concerns over National Service (NS)

The Straits Times Forum

http://www.straitstimes.com/
Published on Aug 16, 2011

Safety of national servicemen a top priority: Mindef

THE Ministry of Defence (Mindef) shares Ms Looi Pek Hong's concern ('National service: A mother's constant worry'; last Friday) and the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) will do all it can to ensure the safety of national servicemen.

Their safety is a top priority. We have a robust system built on internationally accepted guidelines to ensure high standards of safety.

Each commander knows that he has the direct responsibility to ensure the safety of his men in the midst of realistic training. They have to comply with safety procedures, which are prescribed for every training activity and reviewed regularly.

As safety procedures cannot cover all contingencies, individual servicemen have also been taught to remain alert to their own health and surroundings, and to take personal action to safeguard their own safety and that of their buddies during training.

Each time an incident occurs, procedures and precautions are thoroughly reviewed at many levels to improve our safety system.

Mindef and the SAF will strive continually to improve our safety record and we appreciate the commitment and dedication of our servicemen and their families to national service.

Colonel Desmond Tan
Director, Public Affairs
Ministry of Defence