Hello 2014

Before we close shop for the year, I would like to extend to all of you my best wishes for 2014.

To all the servicemen and servicewomen whom I met this year, thank you for patiently taming my curiosity, for taking me into your confidence by sharing more about the work you do and for walking the talk.

It is always a joy being able to see military units from Malaysia and Singapore firsthand and one is aware when watching a military demo that many hands working behind the scenes are often critical to the show's success. Your personal contributions to the demos I have witnessed have always been uppermost on my mind and I thank you deeply for all that you have done, even though we may not have crossed paths directly. The unprecedented number of study visits conducted in 2013 has left me with quiet admiration and a deep sense of respect for the profession of arms - both sides of the Causeway.

To my mentors, thank you for helping me join the dots. Let's just leave it at that. :-)

Am pleased with the level of sensemaking we achieved this year. The "we" includes contributions from blog readers who wrote in with ideas, suggestions and constructive feedback. I appreciate the time and effort each of you took to frame your thoughts and pen your correspondence.

The bar will be lifted even higher in 2014. Count on it.

The defence information ecosystem in Malaysia: A look at Malaysian defence blogs and magazines

Although Malaysia lacks the budget and institutional framework that drives commitment to defence in Singapore, there appears to be no lack of interest that drives defence awareness north of the Causeway.

Whether among the Rakyat at the grassroots level or among its intelligentsia, the deep roots Malaysian society has sunk in the defence and security arena is best seen by these factoids:

* Malaysians author more blogs dedicated to defence matters than Singaporeans, this despite having compulsory National Service (NS) in Singapore since 1967 which has exposed more Singaporeans to military training than Malaysians.

* There are more defence magazines published from the Malaysian capital than in Singapore. Indeed, the region's oldest defence magazine, Asian Defence Journal, was started in Malaysia in 1970.

This state of play is interesting from a media studies point of view and is certainly beneficial to staff officers in Jalan Padang Tembak tasked to cultivate hearts and minds.

Expanded toolkit
The reason is simple: Malaysian defence planners have more tools in their toolkit than their counterparts in Gombak Drive. Ideas, viewpoints, unofficial yet credible impressions that border on plausible denial can therefore be floated using a whole spectrum of communication tools. These range from blogs at the lower end of the spectrum to full-fledged defence magazines at the other end of the scale.

Whether leveraging on the World Wide Web or magazine subscriptions, the audience Malaysia touches is global. Malaysian psywar officers are likely to view the defence media scene on the home front as an asset worth cultivating in peacetime and certainly worth exploiting during a hot-war scenario where an occupier's every misstep or transgression against a captive population would be given maximum, worldwide publicity using every available channel.

It is perhaps during a Period of Tension (POT), that grey area, the awkward phase of interstate relations that is neither business-as-usual and just short of all-out war, that Malaysia's expanded range of options in the defence information sphere will probably make its presence felt. When pitted against another country that is forced to make the first strike, is bound by operational constraints to occupy Malaysian terrain, the narrative that Malaysia can share to the world will likely fall on sympathetic ears. The more media channels, the merrier, as the impact will be keenly felt.

The state of play cannot be examined simply by a census of what Malaysia has and what another society lacks.

It is what the state of play points to - which is the presence of a (apparently) thriving defence ecosystem where points of view can be articulated and debated rigorously - that is all the more valuable than simply having more of one or the other.

Let's now look at their  defence information ecosystem, namely blogs and defence magazines.

Malaysian defence blogs
At first glance, the larger number of defence-themed blogs sustained by the Rakyat vis-à-vis Singapore isn't surprising. One could argue that this is proportionate to the larger population in Malaysia compared to that in the Lion City. True.

Malaysian defence blogs include but are not limited to the following:

A Secure Malaysia. Click here

Malaysian Defence by Marhalim Abas. Click here

Malaysian Flying Herald. Click here

Malaysian Military Power. Click here

We also have the Facebook page by Malaysian defence journalist, Dzirhan Mahadzir (click here) and assorted blogs that touch on defence matters such as OutSyed The Box (click here).

One needs to ponder why defence blogs have a ready audience in Malaysia when Singapore has had 46 years of NS. We also have an armed forces whose full force potential is larger than Malaysia's war machine. With 900,000 Singaporean males having served NS and with the fully mobilised Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) outnumbering the Angkatan Tentera Malaysia (ATM), one could make a convincing and logical case why there ought to be more bloggers on defence matters in Singapore than up north.

Alas, this is not so. And mind you, the blogs listed above are all in English

More than just numbers, the quality of writing on a number of Malaysian blogs is noteworthy. Articles posted on Malaysian Flying Herald, for example, would challenge the viewpoint among some in the Singapore establishment that blogs are run by amateurs who churn out content that pales in comparison when ranked against mainstream media.

If our aversion to defence blogs is a result of NS-induced apathy, then the trend is worrisome.

If the trend is a by-product of officialdom's tight-fisted approach to handling the defence information scene, then aren't we scoring own goals when the system's suspicious attitude towards the inquisitive, the knowledgeable and the passionate ends up alienating the very individuals who could be brand ambassadors for the Ministry of Defence (MINDEF) and the SAF?

If one views the glass as half full, it could also be a result of the proliferation of defence media - albeit government-run - such as Pioneer, Pointer and internal media (Army News, Navy News, Air Force News, RSAF Focus) as well as the many ORD publications that have sustained defence buffs in Singapore with a steady stream of military news and views. But hands up if you think this is so.

Malaysian defence magazines
The defence publication scene in Malaysia is also interesting to analyse.

There exists among some Singaporeans the blinkered view that the Republic is more articulate, more savvy with the English language than the backward, Kampung-style society they enter when one crosses the Causeway.

Nothing could be further from the truth when one assesses the defence magazine market.

Malaysian entrepreneurs have proven they know how to make a buck in the competitive defence publications scene and have outlasted at least three Singaporean magazines that dabbled partly in defence matters in the 1990s.

While there is no denying that higher postage rates and the availability of defence content - much of it free - in cyberspace has challenged the business model for print publications, there are loyal customers in the Federation and beyond who underpin Malaysian defence magazines.

If the  English ones help Padang Tembak address a global audience, those in the vernacular help fortify the Rakyat's faith in the ATM as the defender of the realm.

The editorial slants taken by Malay language publications such as Perajurit when writing about ATM operational taskings such as Ops Daulat, Fajr and Piramid have been nothing short of what MINDEF/SAF would wish local media journalists would bang out on their respective keyboards.

The Malay language articles steer away from jingoism - which can be off-putting - and hit the sweet spot by projecting the ATM as a professional, disciplined, motivated and operationally-ready armed forces even when venturing into intellectual minefields like Ops Daulat.

This is not to say that KEMENTAH has KL's defence magazines eating out of its hand. Far from it. KEMENTAH probably realises the credibility of the editorials is more valuable in serving its defence information needs than having a compliant media. Good for it.

As with the blogs, having precious few defence magazines Singapore can call its own (Defence Review Asia doesn't count as it has Australian shareholders, despite its Singaporean address) is not in itself a source of weakness.

It is also true that when one looks at other benchmarks for cultivating international opinion, our island republic appears to hold an unmatched advantage.

This includes its standing in international fora and the multi-year yet low-profile effort to spawn a new generation of Singapore-friendly foreigners by hosting them for higher studies in Singapore as young adults. It is thought that in time to come, some of these bright young students will rise to positions of authority in their home countries and look upon Singapore with kindly eyes, having spent part of their life here.

It is a noble initiative that should, in theory at least, work in Singapore's favour. But one must recognise this is a long-term effort whose results are difficult to measure and a potential double-edged sword that could haunt Singapore should a bright young student have a sour experience on home ground.

In the meantime, the disparity between the defence information scene in Malaysia and Singapore is likely to stay the way it is.

In peacetime, the image of MINDEF/SAF will not die just because of a single nasty blog post from the Federation or one stinker of an editorial from KL.

But we need to be self-aware of the imbalance and that where we have few, Malaysia has many.

Death by a thousand cuts still results in the same thing.

Downtime in Arizona

What do Singaporeans do when they have free time in the city of Phoenix, Arizona, that takes them away from the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF)' largest and most complex war games involving precision strikes?

A number raid factory outlets to pick up cheap designer brands or launch shopping expeditions of some sort. *yawn* Sorry but am just not the shopping type.

Some go to the Grand Canyon to see the eight wonder of the world.

Or you could drive two hours south to watch A-10 Thunderbolts fly and, while in the vicinity, visit Davis-Monthan Air Force Base.[The suggestion came from a Republic of Singapore Air Force officer who saw my eyes glaze over when the others were planning shopping trips.]

And so, I drove myself two hours south of Phoenix to watch A-10s fly (above) and got a bonus with an unplanned visit to a hardened missile silo.

With no travel partner, it was a solo self-drive that started before sunrise with the GPS lady's voice as company throughout the journey. Engine start was at 0500hrs as I wanted to avoid the traffic jams on Interstate 10 in Phoenix. Most of the run to the south took place in darkness. If as the old saying goes "it is darkest before dawn", this was the setting for the 120+ mile one way trip south to the city of Tuscon where Davis-Monthan AFB is located. This night pre-dawn drive at 55-75mph on the wrong side of a motorway which is largely unlit is new to me.

I leave the radio off throughout and savour the silence. It gives me ample time to run through the many things seen and experienced during XFS'13 and with the PCII team. It has been a memorable week.

Am thankful the car rental guy's advice to go one up and not rent the cheapest wheels was accepted as the tiny low CC Fiat would've had a tough time winding in and out of lanes populated by huge American semis (i.e. prime movers and trailers).

Had no clue about the landscape either side of the interstate. Saw signs for Marana. Flirted with the thought of making a side trip to stalk the RSAF's Peace Vanguard Apache detachment but decided to stick to the plan as Davis-Monthan has been on my to-see list for some time.

Arrive at the Pima Air & Space Museum just before 7am after a non-stop journey. Gates to the museum are wide open so I pop in for a look. Not a soul in sight. High tide. Gift shop toilets are locked. Found a discrete spot out of line-of-sight and security cameras where I water the cacti :-)

Spent time before museum's 9am opening driving round the fenceline of the sprawling air base. Breakfast at a gas station. Ate more than usual as unsure when next meal would be. Had a quarter pounder with cheese and milk and am basically fully fuelled.

The two hours is well spent as there are no dogs here.

A-10 drivers have an early start to the day. Same goes for the C-130s. Breathtaking watching them perform circuits against the backdrop of brilliant blue skies. Yes, cheap thrill but that's me.

Pima is all that it was made out to be. Toured the AMARG boneyard. So this is where our A-4  Skyhawk journey began.

Someone mentions an ICBM museum. How far? 40 minutes. Consult map with gift shop lady and decide to skip lunch to make it there before last entry for the day. The museum is off the map but gift shop lady assures it isn't too far off. Her finger points to a spot on the table top reassuringly close to the edge of the map. The journey resumes.

Ventured further south than planned on Interstate 19. Lovely Red Indian country. It is a desert plain home to cacti and dry scrub with mountains looming in the background under a cloudless, electric blue sky. If you need a setting for a cowboys and Indians movie, this would be it.

Will probably never get to see T3-9 TAB so it was a treat visiting this 1960s era underground hardened facility, which is a feat of military engineering.

The Titan Missile Museum sits on elevated ground overlooking the plains. Most of the fixtures from the 1960s are still there. Enjoyed a tour of the missile facility and hardened areas underground. Volunteer guide was a former missileer. Enthusiasm and subject matter knowledge shows through in his narrative, which he probably has to repeat several times a day to visitors. But he did so with panache.

Run to the north back to Phoenix shows what kind of landscape lies on either side of Interstate 10. In some areas, the car windows frame scenes from tourist postcards: ancient mountains and low hills, dramatic in their outline and form, with assorted cacti striking their classic pose to motorists as we zoom past. I find out why the signs warning motorists of Blowing Dust Areas are there. Cotton fields and dry desert plains can pose a hazard when visibility is affected when dust is blown across the freeway.

An enormously long train rumbles past the interstate, containers double stacked on flat cars. Realise later this is the famous Union Pacific railway line.

RTB after sundown. Clocked just under 300 miles during the solo drive.

Yes, I'm weird. Get used to it. :-)

Love this sign. Yes, to be a credible deterrent, you have to be a credible threat. The tricky bit comes with weaving in the defence diplomacy bit with the neighbours.

Defence Minister Dr Ng Eng Hen meets the Joint Strike Fighter

Photo credit: United States Air Force

First picture of Singapore's Minister for Defence, Dr Ng Eng Hen, with the F-35B Joint Strike Fighter which visited Luke Air Force Base on Tuesday 10 December 2013.

For more, see earlier story here.

Peace Carvin II marks 20th anniversary

United States Air Force Luke Air Force Base, Arizona: The sun never sets on Republic of Singapore Air Force (RSAF) flight training, thanks to a strong and enduring partnership with the United States that has allowed the RSAF to conduct air combat training from American soil.

This morning, defence officials from both countries took a moment to mark a fresh milestone in defence relations: the 20th anniversary of Peace Carvin II, the RSAF F-16 warplane training detachment at Luke Air Force Base, which is the world's largest F-16 training base.

PC2 is the RSAF's longest running overseas training detachment.

Defence Minister Dr Ng Eng Hen, who is here to visit the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) Forging Sabre war games, thanked the United States Air Force (USAF) for its strong support for the PC2 detachment in decades past.

Speaking at a simple parade to mark the occasion, Dr Ng noted that the RSAF detachment at Luke had the opportunity to benchmark themselves with the USAF and had achieved full operational capability with its single-seat F-16C and twin-seat F-16D warplanes in less than five years - a credible achievement for the RSAF when it introduced a new model of the F-16 multirole warplane two decades ago.

"This continuing engagement with the USAF has allowed the RSAF's combat capabilities to grow from strength to strength, by developing new concepts and advanced tactics. This included new weaponry that could strike beyond visual range and with greater accuracy," said Dr Ng.

The detachment's presence in the US has also allowed RSAF pilots and ground crew the opportunity to take part in large scale air warfare exercises that have involved as many as 100 warplanes in the air at the same time. These include USAF two-sided war readiness exercises such as Red Flag, Green Flag, Combat Archer, Night Flag and Maple Flag with the Royal Canadian Air Force.

"These allow our airmen to train in a realistic and challenging environment to sharpen their aerial combat skills and flying competencies," Dr Ng added.

Statistics shared by the PC2 detachment speak volumes of the intensity of training here. This is no holiday camp: more than 50,000 flying hours, 92 live air-to-air missiles of three types launched, 2,492 bombs of five types dropped during war games.

As the sun goes down in Singapore, the PC2 detachment prepares for a fresh training day under almost continuously blue skies that allow flight planners to maximise training for pilots to hone their mastery of the 12 RSAF F-16s at Luke AFB. The presence of the United States military's Barry M. Goldwater Range, minutes away by fighter jet, is a boon to combat training as it allows pilots and WSO fighters to practice air-to-ground and air-to-air tactics using live ammunition.

USAF Lieutenant-Colonel Kevin S. Cruikshank, commander of the 425th Fighter Squadron, 56th Fighter Wing, which is the joint USAF-RSAF command that steers PC2, commended RSAF personnel for their professionalism when sent war games outside their  comfort zone. These include winter training in Alaska.

"When you take somebody and put them in an environment they are not used to and they not only adapt but excel in it, it's a great boost to their confidence. This knowledge that they can do it," LTC Cruikshank said.

He also noted that RSAF airmen had done well during large-scale air warfare exercises, including helming leadership positions that involved conceptualising, planning, briefing and directing air operations for large numbers of warplanes.

The partnership forged 20 years ago has paid handsome dividends for the US in many ways as it laid groundwork for the RSAF to set up other detachments in the US. Along the way, US defence contractors and industry benefitted from spinoffs as Singapore purchased US equipment or paid for  assorted items, such as transport and housing, needed to relocate and house RSAF personnel in the continental United States.

At present, the RSAF flies four detachments in the US. These are the PC2 detachment with F-16C/Ds, Peace Vanguard with AH-64D Apache attack helicopters, Peace Prairie with CH-47D Chinooks and Peace Carvin V with F-15SGs.

"Let me also thank the mayors and the local communities here for your gracious hospitality in welcoming the RSAF personnel and their families into your midst,"said Dr Ng."Your warm friendship has given our people a home away from home."

Life imitates art? SAF demonstrates Dynamic Targeting during Exercise Forging Sabre 2013



 

 

Hammmertime: Airbase facilities are deconstructed by 2,000 pound Mark 84 laser guided bombs dropped by the Republic of Singapore Air Force (RSAF) F-15SG warplanes during Exercise Forging Sabre. The main strike, which was phase 3 of  the firepower display, followed attacks on mobile rocket launchers and SAM installations. It is understood that during operations, air attacks could unfold simultaneously, and not necessarily sequentially.

Incoming: A stationary target in a simulated small town, complete with roads and shophouses, comes under close attention from Republic of Singapore Air Force (RSAF) AH-64D Apache attack helicopters. The attack on the vehicle column harbouring in the town was the fourth item during the  Exercise Forging Sabre firepower display. War games involving combined live-fire exercises of this scale cannot be done in Singapore.


As the country with the largest and most powerful air force in Southeast Asia, Singapore's defence planners would certainly know a thing or two about the dangers of air power unleashed.

The firepower demonstration staged yesterday (Tuesday Arizona time) as part of the Forging Sabre war games provide telling signs to how the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) might swing into action during a conventional war.

To those who looked beyond the obvious, the air and land strikes emphasized the value of Dynamic Targeting, directed by battle managers from a hub for fire control orders that allocated and prioritised targets according to their potential danger to SAF forces.

On Tuesday afternoon, Minister for Defence Dr Ng Eng Hen saw first hand how the Singapore Army and Republic of Singapore Air Force (RSAF) work in concert to knock out an enemy's air power.

The narrative for the 12-minute firepower demo - the largest and most complex  staged by the SAF since Exercise Forging Sabre 2011 - appeared like the game plan for a hot war scenario. It also  appeared to explain why the RSAF has invested heavily in advanced multirole strike warplanes like the F-15SG and F-16C/D as well as precision guided munitions that can hit targets at long range, with deadly accuracy, day/night, not forgetting an advanced command and control battlefield management network to pull its combat forces together.

Vanguard: Singapore's Minister for Defence Dr Ng Eng Hen prepares for a familiarisation flight in an Apache Longbow attack helicopter from the Republic of Singapore Air Force's Peace Vanguard detachment. The flight gave DM a firsthand look at the target complexes in the US military's Barry M. Goldwater Range before they were turned into impact zones for precision guided munitions. Below, the Longbow lands on the austere helipad on NATO Hill.

Dr Ng arrived at NATO Hilll, a hill top observation point in the United States military's Barry M. Goldwater Range, in an RSAF AH-64D Longbow Apache which gave the minister a guided tour of part of the expansive range, some 19 times bigger than Singapore. This vast desert openness in Arizona is the arena for Exercise Forging Sabre, a two-sided combined live-fire exercise that will involve some 700 full-time national servicemen, operationally-ready National Servicemen and SAF regulars from 2 to 17 December.

I can see too: Our view of the expansive CALFEX arena from NATO Hill. Visible in the background are the simulated enemy airbase complex, SAM sites, small town and road network used by remote-controlled vehicles playing the part of mobile rocket launchers marked for a date with a Laser JDAM. The narrative for the battle was interesting, to say the least.

Arrayed before NATO Hill were targets the SAF was tasked to demolish within minutes. Whether by intention or uncanny coincidence, the narrative for Forging Sabre's light and sound show reflects the logical sequence for taking out conventional threats.

From here, we have a ringside seat as the SAF's meanest and deadliest war machines move into action. It was executed according to the sequence below.

Cripple the rocket launchers
First to go was a remote-controlled vehicle that ran for its life along a sinuous desert dirt track, raising a banner of dust in its wake. This simulated a moving target, in this case a rocket launcher. The moving vehicle was tracked by SAF sensors that guided a laser JDAM bomb dropped from a high flying F-15SG warplane, orbiting at  some 16,000 feet, dead on target. After the strike, the narrative indicated that the F-15SG returned to its holding area to await orders to take out another target. As each F-15SG can carry up to 15 JDAMs, the war load of the RSAF's most advanced warplane is noteworthy, considering Singapore has bought 24 of these combat proven warplanes.

Blind the anti-aircraft radars
Next on the target list were radars for  the enemy's anti-aircraft weapons. Two  F-16 warplanes entered the arena to deliver a pair of laser guided bombs on a "radar site". As the bombs blew the target apart, the F-16s left the scene at high speed, releasing a trail of blazing flares that could have deceived heat-seeking missiles launched against them. The evasive manoeuvres were not just for show: during the air strike mock SAMs were launched against the jets to simulate an enemy air defences abuzz with retaliatory moves.

Offline: Smoke plumes mark the death of enemy SAM radars, which are hit during the opening phase of the CALFEX. RSAF F-16C/Ds claimed this kill during XFS 2013. The RSAF flies the largest fleet  of F-16s in Southeast Asia.

Clip the wings
After this strike came the main strike team, made up of just two F-15SGs. Each carried four Mark 84 2,000-pound bombs - the largest bombs in the RSAF's arsenal - to demolish aircraft fuel and ammunition storage at a hostile air base. As the bombs blasted the simulated air base, they created a tall column of  smoke that marked the death of an air force. The narrator noted that a real air base target may involve eight or more F-15SGs, and that single strike by a fraction of what would be fielded in a shooting war gave observers some idea of the damage such a main strike could inflict.

It is interesting to note that the opening phases of  the Forging Sabre firepower demo placed air bases and surface to air missile sites high on the target list, as such a game plan was indeed pursued by air power planners who fought in Iraq and the former Yugoslavia. SAF defence planners understand that warplanes are weapons only when they are in the air, sustained with weapons, fuel and pilots. A warplane on the ground is a high value target just waiting to have its wings clipped.

Shred the tank columns
In came the Apache attack helicopters that drizzled a simulated town with rockets fired at a column of enemy vehicles parked in civilian areas. Red buildings indicated civilian targets that could not be hit as these could result in civilian casualties. The cloud of rockets that smashed the tank column would have shredded enemy armour and stopped a real one in its tracks.

Strike the command centre
The finale came from the Singapore Army's HIMARS - its name means High Mobility Artillery Rocket System - which were tasked to destroy static, high value targets such as command posts. The observers on NATO Hill scrutinised the live firing area to  pick out the HIMARS launchers.

Outgoing: HIMARS rocket launchers join the fight by giving an enemy command post a close look at the SAF's long-range precision rockets. Rocket barrages were fired day and night using the Singapore Artillery's hide-shoot-scoot concept. These rockets were fired mostly by young full-time National Servicemen from the 23rd Battalion, Singapore  Artillery.

Those who failed to spot them could not fail to notice the tendrils of  smoke which rose from the desert floor, pointing towards the direction of the simulated enemy.

From start to finish, the successive blasts of  flame and steel at various desert targets appeared to be random, uncoordinated shows of strength, each war machine creating a bang on its own.

Nerves that move the muscle
Behind the scenes, the hive of activity at the Forging Sabre Command Post tells a different story. Each warplane and attack helicopter did not fight its own private duel, but delivered its punch as part of  a larger effort at wielding the SAF's ground and air combat forces to deliver an integrated strike.

Seeing such battle managers work in concert with the sharp end of the SAF like Commando teams, rocket  artillery, warplanes and attack helicopters at Forging Sabre show how far the Third Generation SAF had advanced to sharpen its deterrent edge.

By day and by night, enemy battlefield  targets came under the closest scrutiny by the SAF and received violent treatment as precision weapons and relentless strikes tore apart the enemy's war fighting potential. At Forging Sabre, precision strikes spoke the language of deterrence.

Words into action, action into results that indicated the score card should the SAF ever swing into action would aim to clip the enemy's wings and blunt hostile rocket launchers should deterrence ever fail.


You may also like:
SAF versus cynics and critics. Click  here

Decisive Victors: A 3G SAF primer. Click here

Forging Sabre 2011.  Click here

Forging Sabre, Forging Knights. Click here

Rockets away! Bravo Battery 23rd Battalion Singapore Artillery fires first GMLRS during Exercise Forging Sabre

Missile away: Gunners from Bravo Battery, 23rd Battalion Singapore Artillery, let fly at enemy positions with Himars artillery rockets during Exercise Forging Sabre 2013, now unfolding in the Arizona desert in the United States.


With Bravo Battery 23 SA somewhere in the Barry M. Goldwater Range, Arizona: Taking aim at a target in the Arizona desert that he couldn't see with his own eyes, full-time National Service artillery gunner Third Sergeant (3SG) Tien Wei Xuan needed all the help he could get to place his rockets dead on target.

Hard enough to achieve in daylight in terra incognito, the Singapore Artillery gunners faced a bigger challenge with a fire mission issued after sundown in an exercise area where sky and land merged pitch black. This was done to test the capability and readiness of Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) units in sustaining the fight round-the-clock to break the tempo of the opposing force during the Exercise Forging Sabre war games.

3SG Tien got what he needed and more from SAF battle managers who helped the gunners make every shot count as they reached out to touch simulated enemy installations far away (HIMARS rockets can reach out to 70km). They did so using battle management computers tailored specifically for the SAF's C4ISTAR requirements by Singaporean defence science managed by the Defence Science & Technology Agency.

Heavy hitter meets heavy lifter: A HIMARS rocket launcher from 23 SA crowned by a RSAF CH-47D Chinook in the background during Exercise Forging Sabre. The CALFEX has allowed SAF air and ground forces to coordinate and integrate their firepower and support capabilities as battle managers from all three  SAF Services (yes, RSN personnel are here too) plan and execute integrated strikes day and night, in unfamiliar territory and at noteworthy distances.

He got the eyes on target, which is so vital for precision strikes, and demolished it with the press of a button from the armoured cabin of a Singapore Army HIMARS rocket artillery vehicle. Ground intelligence was courtesy of Singapore Army Commandos who lurked some distance away who had the enemy target under close observation.

Another source of target data came from a ScanEagle Unmanned Aerial Vehicle. The UAV orbited noiselessly, persistently and inquisitively over the battlefield to provide SAF battle managers with a rich source of real-time data.

Sustaining the fight: A HIMARS launcher receives a fresh pod of rockets with live munitions during Exercise Forging Sabre 2013. Not apparent in this picture are the cold conditions that SAF regulars, NSFs and NSmen had to toil under, testing personal endurance and adaptability during a demanding conventional warfare exercise scenario that involved day and night kinetic operations over long distances. The desert sky was indeed electric blue when this picture was taken. Photo credit: Ministry of Defence

3SG Tien need not have travelled halfway around the globe to the Barry M. Goldwater Range just outside Phoenix, Arizona, to practice rocket firing. He could have done anytime any day at any lift in Singapore, so similar are the muscle movements.

Bravo Battery and elements from the 24th Battalion Singapore Artillery (24 SA, a battalion known as the firefinders. They help gunners find their targets.) flew here to gain firsthand experience working the sensor-to-shooter cycle at a combined live-fire exercise or CALFEX. The experience conducting a fire mission which resulted in the discharge of live munitions was the invaluable part of XFS that cannot be replicated in Singapore.

Unfamiliar ground, winter weather that saw night time temperatures in the desert plunge from the high teens in Celsius to just above freezing was just one of the challenges at the SAF's largest exercise. SAF units at Forging Sabre were also stalking by fellow soldiers and RSAF warplanes playing the part of the "red" forces who were determined to make it a tough fight.

Fire commands that lead to a live rocket launch from a HIMARS - its name stands for High Mobility Artillery Rocket System - were practised during about a dozen field exercise in Singapore by 3SG Tien and his fellow NSF gunners from Bravo Battery, 23rd Battalion Singapore Artillery (23 SA) executed the firing sequence with "live" ammunition for the first time.

The 23 SA gunners did so as they had been trained, confident in the knowledge that they knew precisely what to do, even in terra incognito, in harsh winter weather conditions and under pressure from "higher command" closely monitoring the battery's every move.

With the target singled out for destruction by SAF battle managers, now came the moment for Bravo Battery 23 SA to reach out and touch it.

He did so, a calm military professional who belied his age and showed he had grown up in his year plus NS experience into a full-fledged gunner about to fire the SAF's first satellite-guided rocket round. Tonight, he was Launcher 3.

As higher command in the CP approved the rocket strike, the order was relayed to Bravo Battery's CP for their information and necessary action. The order to fire is then issued.

"Command to Launcher 3, Arm, over."

"Launcher 3 to Command. Launcher armed. Out."

"Command to Launcher 3, Cancel. At my command: Fire."

Within his armoured cabin bathed in orange light and with blast shields protecting the glass windows, 3SG Tien's rocket team initiated several actions prior to opening fire. The NBC overpressure protection system was started so that exhaust  gases from the rocket plume would not enter the cabin. He then depressed the fire button.

A split second delay and the rockets roared off into the inky darkness.

What 3SG Tien and his crew did not see was the response in the Command Post miles away. As the SAF's first GMLRS soared into space, all eyes in the CP were locked on the screen showing its flight path and another screen that showed what the target area looked like. Both real time images were captured by SAF UAVs.

The rocket scored a direct hit that saw an enormous fireball erupt at target centre, triggering applause in the CP, making history as this was the first GMLRS munition ever launched by the Singapore Army and pushing morale in Bravo Battery sky high.

"Launcher 3 to Command, Rocket 1, all last shot. Over."

"Command to Launcher 3, Rocket 1. All last shot. Out."

Mission accomplished.


Acknowledgements
The writer extends his thanks to the Singapore Artillery for that splendid afternoon and night shoot, for the free hot water :-) and the company of citizen soldiers figuring things out in a strange, chilly yet friendly land far from home.

USMC F-35B performs for Singaporean Minister of Defence Dr Ng Eng Hen

Note: We just completed an interview with DM. Will update the story in due course, hopefully with pictures.

United States Air Force Luke Air Force Base, Phoenix, Arizona: The world's most advanced warplane capable of short take-offs and vertical landings, the F-35B Joint Strike Fighter (JSF), staged a 16-minute aerial display for Defence Minister Dr Ng Eng Hen and Ministry of Defence (MINDEF) officials, stoking speculation among military watchers that Singapore's position on the JSF is imminent.

The aerial display took place after Dr Ng and Chief of  Air Force of the Republic of Singapore  Air Force (RSAF), Major-General Hoo Cher Mou were introduced to another F-35B on static display at Luke AFB.

The F-35B "06" (168724) that Dr Ng and  MG Hoo saw is flown by United States Marine Corps (USMC) unit VMFA-121. The static JSF was displayed outside the flightline for the USAF 944th Fighter Wing and had its weapons bay closed throughout the visit.

Though the USAF Luke AFB Public Affairs office issued a Facebook updated that announced the F-35Bs would call at the airbase - the world's largest F-16 training base -  security at the event was tight as Singaporean media were not allowed to take pictures of the operational F-35Bs.

A security cordon was also thrown around the static display JSF, with non VIP visitors allowed no closer than 20 feet from the warplane. Dr Ng and CAF were the only ones brought around the aircraft from 10:40am local time.

Dr Ng tried out the F-35B's pilot helmet, which helps the pilot fuse information from various sensors, mounted a ladder to look at the cockpit and briefed on the JSF's nose-mounted sensors and design features of the warplane.

The 16-minute aerial display saw a second F-35B make a low level passes over the airbase at a low airspeed that fighter planes apart from USMC Harrier ground attack planes are not capable of performing.

The finale saw the JSF pilot hover his aircraft almost in front of the Singaporean visitors. It then pivoted slightly to the left and dipped its nose forward before turning again and resuming its flight in the previous direction before landing.

Exercise Forging Sabre 2013 - SAF battle managers practice Dynamic Targeting to deal with air/land targets

Nerve centre: The nerves that move the muscle at Exercise Forging Sabre 2013 are directed from this Singapore Armed Forces Command Post set up at Luke Air Force Base in Arizona. Picture: Ministry of Defence, Singapore

United States Air Force Luke Air Force Base, Phoenix, Arizona: The best view of the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) Forging Sabre war games, now in full swing in the Arizona desert in the United States, comes from a windowless room about the size of a large lecture hall whose front stage has been turned into a vast video wall.

This is the Command Post for the SAF's largest and most complex live-fire war games and we have been invited to watch battle managers at work.

The scene reminds one of the local pub on soccer night during a tense moment in the match with everyone's gaze locked onto the action; a stock market gallery where punters hedge their bets; a supersized LAN gaming room where the ultimate, multiplayer, real-time online combat game is being played.

SAF battle managers in action
Nine outsized plasma screens are placed across the width of the room in two rows, commanding the attention from the audience of dozens of SAF personnel from the Singapore Army, Republic of Singapore Navy and Republic of Singapore Air Force. These indicate the pulse of the clash between SAF air and land combat forces - things like live imagery from UAVs, number of warplanes in the air, maps showing territory gained - in the vast Arizona desert and SAF units hand-picked to play the part of a resilient and credible enemy.

Each warfighter stares at the screens in rapt attention and issues/acknowledges orders in respectful silence. [One shout from Tiger Hong, the legendary sergeant major from the First Generation SAF would probably have blown everyone from their seats.] This is the Third Generation SAF, decision cycles for Dynamic Targeting are faster, the results on the battlefield executed with more devastating effect and our battle managers in the Command Centre are hard at work without the torrent of shouts common to battles past.

Here, professionals are at work.

The ultra modern is complemented by the quirky: push button telephones in glossy black plastic and 1970s-era handsets with a loud Old Phone ringtone to match. These warn SAF battle managers of impending action (air strikes or rocket artillery barrages) far away; their ring a cue that inevitably triggers the flurry of rapid-fire typing on keyboards across the room as battle managers rely commands across the ether.

There is also the mind boggling jargon as everyone talks in military-speak: Sweepers refer to warplanes sent ahead of RSAF air strikes to sweep away aerial opposition with a cloud of air-to-air missiles. Hammertime is called when our air force pilots are about to knock the daylights out of an enemy target using one of the 60 precision-guided munitions that will be launched, fired or dropped during the war games.

Each of the 18 giant plasma screens provide a update of the unfolding battle between SAF ground and air combat forces duke it out with a "red team" several kilometres away in the vast expanse of the Barry M. Goldwater Range - this is a US military training area about 19 times bigger than Singapore. Every giant screens up front is completed by a terrace of seats, placed in rows like a school lecture theatre where neat lines of even more flat screen computer terminals teach dozens of SAF warfighters the art, science and emotions of war fought/lost in front of colleagues and under the watchful gaze of longer serving SAF officers and advisors.

That this war games means something to the SAF comes from the list of superlatives Ministry of Defence (MINDEF) and the SAF share when talking about the exercise: most number of precision guided munitions of all types will be fired, first time a satellite-guided rocket will be launched, most complex integration of how the SAF finds, fixes and finishes the enemy.

Growth of Forging Sabre
Exercise Forging Sabre first made the news in 2005 as the SAF's proof of concept for integrated strike. In 2009, the command post for integrated strike warfare was tested and operationalized, along with the addition of a new heavy hitter, the Himars rocket artillery system. And the last exercise in 2011 saw F-15SG Strike Eagles, the RSAF's most advanced warplanes, obliterate targets in the Arizona desert alongside the long-serving yet agile F-16C/D fighter jets.

At Forging Sabre 2013, the good guys are in for a surprise: The most telling statistic that emphasizes the growth of the war games in realism and complexity comes from the decision by SAF defence planners to upsize the number and sophistication of the simulated enemy.

So while in 2011, the "red" or enemy forces comprised RSAF warplanes sent up to provide token resistance, the enemy has evolved brains and brawn.

Credible enemy
RSAF Senior Lieutenant Colonel Ho Yong Peng - whose initials "HYP" christened him with the callsign Hyper -  plays the fictional "enemy" as Red Air Commander. He explained:"We want to ensure the SAF gets realistic training and want to make sure we train as well shall fight. As you know, in war, you will have a thinking, adapting enemy, never staying still and who still wants to strike."

SAF battle managers have to contend with a hostile air force armed with beyond visual range air-to-air missiles and an air defence system that forces RSAF warfighters to fight their way through contested airspace en route to their targets.

SLTC Ho added:"You don't expect the enemy to play fair. We make sure we have plans and tactics to punish them and make sure SAF forces never  have an easy day in the field."

His Red Land Commander counterpart, Colonel Andrew Lim, is equally fired up to remind SAF warfighters in Arizona their trip here is no holiday.

To maximise realism, COL Lim said the SAF Wargame Centre uses battle simulations to create enemy land forces on plasma screens that test how SAF battle managers cope with challenging scenarios such as having more targets than assets to strike which forces commanders to prioritise targets.

"This exercise puts a Division Strike Centre through its paces," said COL Lim, referring to the heart of the Army division's command structure where battle orders are planned and initiated.

The simulations SAF friendly forces see on their screens can also simulate events such as the firing of rockets by the enemy or impediments to movement that could arise from having to minimise collateral damage to civilians in urban areas.

To fight back, the vast expanse of the US military's Barry M. Goldwater Range allows friendly forces to take out the targets simulated on computer screens with fire missions against simulated targets in the real world. These include command posts, moving targets such as columns of enemy armour and high value targets such as aircraft shelters.

Amid the ferocity of battle - no SAF battle manager red or blue worth his salt lets the enemy walk over him/her - there is much learning after each bruising encounter.

The same Command Post host joint debriefings where all SAF forces who took part in a particular battle encounter get together to exchange viewpoints, make new acquaintances and forge new ones as they ensure the sharp end of the SAF remains credible, powerful and ready.


Acknowledgements:
With grateful thanks to the Ministry of Defence Singapore for hosting this study visit.

Visit to Luke Air Force Base

Dear Readers,

The facebook post from Luke AFB has been updated to the version below.

We understand that Singapore accepted the invitation by the United States to demo the F-35 at Luke Air Force Base during Defence Minister Dr Ng Eng Hen's visit to the base, as part of his visit to Exercise Forging Sabre.

 

Best regards,

David

Luke AFB, Arizona-56th Fighter Wing

4 hours ago

UPDATED MEDIA ADVISORY!!!
F-35B aircraft expected to visit Luke AFB Dec. 10...

F-35B aircraft from Marine Corps Air Station Yuma are expected to be flying at Luke AFB from approximately 10:30 a.m. to noon on Tuesday, Dec. 10. Senior defense officials from Singapore are visiting the base as part of Forging Sabre, a Singapore armed forces exercise taking place at Luke and at the Barry M. Goldwater ...training range. Singapore is considering purchasing F-35s in the future.
The F-35B is the “short takeoff and vertical landing” variant of the aircraft developed for the U.S. Marine Corps. It is configured differently than the F-35A “conventional takeoff and landing” variant used by the U.S. Air Force. The first of Luke’s F-35A aircraft are expected to arrive in early 2014.
Luke will not be hosting media for the event, but media and the general public are welcome to observe the aircraft flying in the pattern from public areas outside the base.

Admin Note: Outbound

Just a quick note to inform everyone that I'm now on transit, outbound for another study visit.

Stay tuned for more.

Full reports and firsthand accounts will follow in due course. T'kasih.

Republic of Singapore Navy Type 218SG submarine buy caps 18-year journey in underwater warfare

This week's announcement that Singapore has ordered two new Type 218SG submarines from Germany sends a clear and definitive answer to the question floated more than 18 years ago when defence planners pondered adding subs to the Republic of Singapore Navy (RSN).

When German shipyard ThyssenKrupp delivers the boats from 2020, the Type 218SGs - the world's most modern conventional subs - and two Archer-class subs presently in service will give the RSN the largest fleet of submarines in Southeast Asia (provided regional fleets stay the same).

It is an acquisition to cheer; a prudent hedge against choppy waters in regional sealanes.

With the subs operating in concert with the RSN's six Formidable-class stealth warships - the world's most heavily-armed frigates which can collectively bring into play up to 144 anti-ship missiles - and with the Republic of Singapore Air Force flying top cover, the seaward defences of Singapore will never have been sharper.

The Singapore navy may not have made it this far, if Ministry of Defence (MINDEF) and RSN defence planners were not given the time, know-how and resources needed to make an informed case for or against buying subs.

And so, in September 1995, Singapore took the plunge when it bought a single, low-cost second-hand sub from Sweden to see if the RSN should add subs to its fleet. Yes, we bought a submarine to assess if we should add subs to the RSN.

Try before buy
If that leap of logic baffles you, bear in mind that MINDEF/SAF force planners in the 1990s were pitted against a formidable anti-submarine "weapon" - a sceptical and influential politician whose say-so carries some heft. That politician was Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore's founding father.

"Every armed force believes it ought to upgrade. For years I told the Singapore Armed Forces, which wanted submarines 'You are crazy. These are shallow waters. You will easily be detected and bombarded with depth charges.'

"But well, OK. Here is the Swedish submarine. The economy is doing well and it is a cheap sub. Its purchase will still be within the 5 per cent of GDP  assigned to defence. So, why not use it for some training," said Mr Lee in his first comments on the RSN's foray into submarine warfare.(Straits Times 11 Oct 1995)

To his credit, the time and space Mr Lee allowed the RSN has helped shape Fleet RSN into the compact yet credible fighting force it is today.

Sub operations from S'pore
Subs are not new to Singapore. Prior to the Second World War, British naval planners recognised their value even in the shallow seas around Singapore. The Royal Navy's 4th Flotilla of submarines operated out of Sembawang Naval Base. That we heard nothing of their contribution to the Battle of Singapore was due to their redeployment to the eastern Mediterranean during the halcyon two years and three months before the outbreak of war in the Pacific.

As war raged in Europe, the aircraft carrier which operated from Singapore, HMS Eagle, was also reassigned to Mediterranean waters to bolster British naval forces fighting the combined might of German and Italian forces. There, the subs and aircraft carrier from Singapore fought with distinction.

Had they remained in the Far East, it would be fascinating to contemplate the "what-if" scenario involving the Royal Navy's Force Z centered on the battleship, HMS Prince of Wales, the battle cruiser, HMS Repulse, with the weak escort of just four destroyers.

Alas, both Prince of Wales and Repulse were sunk on 10 December 1941 by Japanese bombers off Kuantan. But their loss underlined the importance of fighting a naval war in regional waters with a "balanced" navy - which in today's context means having naval forces able to conduct operations against surface, underwater, aerial targets as well as packing an electronic warfare capability to be used against sensors like radars and guided weapons.

MINDEF/SAF defence planners have apparently heeded these lessons well.

In the past 18 years, the RSN has looked at more than merely adding more subs to its order of battle. The first hand-me-down from Sweden, renamed RSS Challenger, was joined by three other Challenger-class boats before a more capable albeit second-hand class of sub, which we renamed the Archer-class, was bought from Sweden.

Uniquely Singapore
Singapore has recognised that submarine support operations are vital too. Today, the RSN is the only Southeast Asian navy with a submarine rescue capability complemented by strong underwater medicine expertise. This is a low-profile capability, arguably less eye-catching and not as sexy as warships with all their guns and missiles, but is one that is nonetheless vital for submariners to have peace of mind while at sea.

Singapore has also used its defence science know-how to give our submarines a secure homeport to operate from. The reinforced concrete submarine pen at Changi Naval Base is probably unique in the region as it allows our subs to berth within a concrete enclosure, protected from the elements, prying eyes and enemy munitions.

Above all, the thousands of defence engineers are a precious asset that has allowed the RSN to order successive generations of subs tailored-made for local waters.

It is no accident that Internet search engines scouring cyberspace have failed to suggest the vital statistics or an artist's impression of our newly-ordered subs. This is because the Type 218SGs are said to be a class of sub specially designed for the RSN. The name change is not merely to allay  suggestions that ThyssenKrupp's current Type 214 subs were rebranded as "214" sounds like "sure to die" in Cantonese while "218" has a more auspicious "sure to prosper" ring to it. :-)

Homegrown expertise
Going forward, the "customised submarines" the RSN will receive from Germany make it clear that homegrown defence science know-how will be used to build a combat information system that forms the heart of the Type 218SG's combat potential.

In this regard, the Defence Science & Technology Agency (DSTA), which is spearheading the effort  to deliver the subs with German partners, has strong expertise to draw upon. The combat system that ties together various sensors and weapon systems aboard the Formidable-class frigates is the product of Singaporean defence engineers, who delivered the goods despite initial cynicism from foreign defence observers who could not believe the empty frigate hulls could be kitted out by Singaporean hands.

But we did it and several Defence Technology Prizes - the Oscars of Singapore's defence science community - were scooped by various project teams associated with the stealth frigate project.

To be sure, the task at hand for integrating various bits and pieces for a bespoke man-of-war designed to sink and fight from beneath the waves will be complex and will test the diligence and creativity of our defence scientists and naval planners.

However, thanks to the foresight of defence planners 18 years ago, the Type 218SG project team can draw upon nearly two decades of experience in sub operations plus a growing alumni of MINDEF/SAF underwater warfare experts.

One has little doubt that the Type 218SG project team stands to earn its own Defence Technology Prizes in time to come.

The coming Red tide: China's ambitious push into the South China Sea and its impact on Singapore

Although Singapore is far enough from China's Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) that our foreign ministry and defence ministry staffers can enjoy their normal weekend, the question that begs asking is whether Chinese aggression assertiveness nationalistic endeavours will stop at just imposing an air curtain off the Chinese seaboard.

If this is a sign of things to come, one can expect even more from the People's Republic of China (PRC) when (and not "if") it builds the military muscle to project and sustain its naval presence in the South China Sea (SCS).

At the current state of play, China's ADIZ can be monitored using its mainland air defence assets and naval units maintaining a radar picket offshore.

Naval aviation is confined to shipborne helicopters or mainland-based warplanes whose operational radii are tethered to their air-to-air refuelling capability or internal fuel and drop tanks.

Their sole aircraft carrier, Liaoning, is more a prop, a showpiece that makes an impressive backdrop for photo shoots involving carrier-borne fighters or PLAN heavy units. That single training carrier, devoid of an established concept of operations grounded on sound naval doctrine, operating with no organic AEW&C aircraft, sailing without the security of an outer perimeter of light forces, submarines and an inner ring of heavy naval units, no UNREP support ships worth talking about, is not a serious contender should she be pitted against present day naval forces in the region.

PRC naval aviation in 2030
But telescope China's military capabilities 15 years forward, sustained at the current growth trajectory, and one is likely to count fully operational two aircraft carriers that can project China's military ambitions closer to our neighbourhood.

By 2030, the ruffled feathers over the ADIZ would have long accepted the zone as status quo.

By 2030, regional analysts would have been desensitised to years of watching China's air and naval forces operate in the South China Sea.

That may pave the way for China to assert a stronger presence in the neighbourhood, using its SCS islets as anchor points and the aircraft carriers as patches of sovereign Chinese territory from which it can generate and sustain naval air cover.

Having China declare and secure territorial waters around South China Sea islets would change the game for defence planners so used to watching what the neighbours are up to. Emboldened by the ADIZ experience acquired in 2013, it would be interesting to theorise if they would pull a similar gig in the SCS once they have the military muscle to back words with deed.

Strategic realities
All the present-day talk about military options against China and analysis of how Red China is militarily weak compared to regional forces ignores two strategic realities.

First, military action against the PRC must reckon how industry would react when China is, and will continue to be, essentially the world's factory. Hitting China is unlike bombing the Ruhr during WW2. Industry magnates would have done their sums and quiet lobbying may hamstring military options, particularly when Western economic interests are at stake should things turn nasty.

Second, order of battle comparisons and us-versus-them scenarios generated by defence analysts and armchair generals from *insert your country of choice* seem to ignore the reality such tussles might see Chinese tactical nukes thrown into the equation. What then? Yes, it is mad. But many wars have stemmed from miscalculations of minor consequence snowballing into wider strategic effect (think about how the complex interplay of strategic alliances led to WW1 after Archduke Ferdinand was shot).

Dearth of analysis
Cold War calculations benefitted richly from decades of analysis which bred two/three generations of experten who devoted their lives to analysing how war across the Iron Curtain could flare. All sorts of scenarios from limited exchange on short warning, long war scenarios, proxy wars, launch on warning/launch on impact, command relationships with strategic nuclear forces, second strike capabilities and so on were studied and discussed extensively. Effects on global weather patterns were theorised (nuclear winter), movies were made and best seller novels on Cold War battles became vacation staples.

All this brain power amassed over the years made a positive and decisive contribution to deterrence. Because both sides understood the chilling costs of war. And no one was left to any doubt about the cost of miscalculation.

Compared to the Cold War, the standoff between China and its neighbours suffers from a dearth of literature which helps us get a better grasp of the situation.*

Concerns expressed in the past week about the ADIZ becoming a flashpoint probably stem from the realisation of the dreadful consequences that have resulted when one mixes nation willpower with misfired firepower.

Singapore's Foreign Minister K. Shanmugan said on 29 November'13 at the Global Outlook Forum in the lion city:"An incident can easily happen and we, the rest of the world, are to some extent hostage to what some ship captains might do. And how he might get us all involved in a conflagration that no one wants."

The concerns are not theoretical musings or scare mongering, but anchored on the substantial body count from the recent past in and around our immediate neighbourhood.

The April 2001 Hainan Incident, which resulted when a Chinese fighter jet collided with a United States (US) Navy EP-3 electronic surveillance plane off Hainan - where China's strategic submarines are based - is one example.

The September 1983 downing of Korean Air Lines Boeing 747 Flight KAL 007 off Russia's Sakhalin island, after a Russian air defence fighter guided by confused GCI controllers in the dark went weapons free is another.

Farther afield, we have the July 1988 case of the US Navy Aegis cruiser, USS Vincennes, shooting down Iran Air Airbus A300 Flight 655 after mistaking the airliner for an incoming flight of Iranian F-14 Tomcat warplanes. The Vincennes, in its time one of the latest US Navy warships, had info fusion capabilities that were then state-of-the-art. But this did not prevent the slaughter of innocents.

Whether it's a military-to-military encounter, warplane versus airliner or warship versus airliner, the tragedies that unfolded are real and may be sadly replayed should push come to shove in regional air and sea lanes. What's sobering to note is the individuals involved in shooting down the Korean and Iranian airliners were never brought to justice - which is a point ADIZ missileers and PRC foreign ministry staffers may have pondered.

A more robust presence by China in the SCS in not a cause for alarm. But it is unquestionable that  the region's strategic situation will be impacted, depending on the size, strength and longevity of Chinese military power sitting astride air and sea lanes that link Southeast Asia with key markets in North Asia.

What remains to be seen is if insurance underwriters can be similarly assured if and when China's naval ensign flies high in the SCS. Wasn't it not so long ago when Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore worked hard - collectively and energetically - to convince Lloyd's of London to remove the "War Risk" label for the Malacca Strait due to piracy/sea robber activity? We did so as this category would push up hull premiums and lead to higher shipping costs which, somewhere sometime downstream, would push up price tags for things we buy.

It is still some years away. Defence planners looking ahead must be aware that the current state-of-the-art - stealth warships or submarines - may be due for upgrading or replacement by 2030. What matters is the awareness that one should look beyond the immediate neighbourhood to factor in other players who can be expected to trail their coats off one's doorstep, in years to come.

Be that as it may, what is intriguing is the Chinese mindset that seeks to sweep aside and explain away regional concerns about its unilaterally declared ADIZ - air traffic has not been disrupted (true), it is within China's sovereign rights to do so (true) and that other nations have done so too (true).

It is not so much the rhetoric but more the intellectual intransigence in being able or willing to see the other side's point of view and bulldozing forth with one's perspective that points to the kind of future we can expect to see when the Red tide flows south.**

We can look further north than we're already used to, or we can sit tight and be totally blasé about regional geo-politics, only to wake up in 2030 to realise that the Singapore coastline pre-WW2 was better defended against warships than the city in the garden we're building together.




* This paragraph from The Straits Times report on the Global Outlook Forum is a case in point. An ST  journalist theorised why the US flew B-52 bombers in the ADIZ:"He pointed out that the US chose B-52s - rather than, say, the F-35 stealth fighters - for the mission. B-52s are the biggest planes in the US fleet, he said, with the largest radar  profiles, so the message from the US was that 'we want you to know', he said." (ST 30 Nov'13, page A8 'Top of the News')

With respect, the analysis is farcical. Had the US sent F-35 fighters with stealth features, the message would have been heard loud and clear not just in Beijing but around the world as the F-35s are not even in operational service. The journalist would have done nicely leaving it generically at "stealth fighters" without elaborating on type ("If unsure, leave it out" - Journalism 101). Or he could have mentioned F-22s, which have flown show-of-force missions in this region - and made paying participants at the forum feel they got their money's worth.


** Speaking of not being able to see the other side's point of view, the risks to flight safety when military flights take-off at their own whim and fancy without due regard to Air Traffic Control instructions was made apparent during the TNI's recent Angkasa Yudha war games. Indonesia's largest deployment of warplanes to Hang Nadim Airport in Batam came under the guidance from Changi Airport's ATC, as agreed by Indonesia as the airport's radar coverage is rudimentary. This blog is aware that some TNI flights took to the skies, destination Natunas, while ignoring instructions from Changi whose job was to ensure safe flight separation between commercial traffic and the TNI warplanes.

Republic of Singapore Air Force (RSAF) Black Knights aerobatics team stage photo shoot over Singapore city

Residents over eastern Singapore had a sneak peak of precision flying by the Republic of Singapore Air Force (RSAF) Black Knights aerial display team when six F-16Cs in prominent red/white/black team colours, accompanied by an F-16D (in usual warpaint) possibly as a photo ship, flew low over the city skyline early Saturday morning.

The Black Knights team had a cloudless Saturday morning for their photo shoot. According to plane  spotters, the team formed up over RSAF Paya Lebar Air Base around 8:15am before heading southwards in tight formation.

Approaching the city from Paya Lebar Air Base, the six F-16Cs called smoke on about 8 km out and trailed a banner of smoke all the way to Singapore's iconic city skyline, with the chase plane in close contact.

Results of this morning's photo shoot could be intended for Black Knights publicity material.

The reformed Black Knights are due to make their public debut at next year's Singapore Airshow (11 to 16 February 2014).


Update: Image taken at around 11:38 Hotel, update posted at 11:45 Hotel
Black Knights back for another run past the city. White smoke trails. Here's a picture.

 Delta Chevron Flyby

 

Update: 16:42 Hotel. Video of Black Knights practice submitted by reader Raymond Lee KL. Filmed from Sengkang at around 11:40 Hotel almost directly under flight path. Note the faithful F-16D chase plane following the action at close range.

 

Chevron Roll



Acknowledgements:
Many thanks to all plane spotters who contributed sighting reports this morning.

Visit to Muar

Fur ball: Kittens at play on the grounds of Masjid Jamek Sultan Ibrahim. The one in front, an eager hunter, looked like a tiger cub. Note the kittens' playmate striking out like a fencer from right of frame while the rest of the pack are boxed in.


Hi everyone,
Am winding up a three-day visit to Muar - which isn't your usual touristy place.

Had a wonderful time poking around town and its surroundings on the road/estates leading to Melaka. :-)

To the people of Muar, thank you for the hospitality. Your town will feature heavily at the front and tail end of a report am working on.

Wet gap water obstacle Irrigation canal in an oil palm estate outside Muar.

Admin note: Capability demo

Dear All,
Am in the process of sourcing a compact digital camera with video function to cover a capability demonstration. It will take place overseas and will involve air and ground combat forces from an ASEAN country.

Have received several suggestions. Photo buffs, if you have something in mind which costs less than $500, is compact and rugged enough to withstand blast shock, please email me. The camera may not survive the trip, hence the low budget :)

Details will follow once embargo is lifted. TY


David

Deal or no deal? Decision awaited on whether the F-35 will join the Republic of Singapore Air Force (RSAF)

Today's Straits Times report* headlined "S. Korea to buy 40 F-35 stealth fighters"' is a dress rehearsal for how the local media will describe the warplane if and when Singapore updates its fighter fleet.

If the Lockheed-Martin (LMCO) warplane is going to be touted by the Singaporean media as a "stealth fighter", one would hope our home audience of tax payers is discerning enough to know their war machines.

That's because in the world of low observable (aka "stealth") technology, there are stealth fighters and there are stealth fighters.

Clever marketing campaigns, below-the-radar lobbying and clueless newsrooms often conspire to upsell stealth wannabes as the real thing, when in reality the warplane falls short in the real world test of fighter jet versus integrated air defence system.

In the case of the LMCO F-35 Lightning II, design features such as its angular fuselage which make the fighter less observable have elevated the platform's status to that of a stealth fighter.

But what's linguistically correct may not pass muster in the eyes of discerning military buyers and knowledgeable defence scientists.

A warplane with low observable features does not magically transform into a stealth fighter just because one wishes it to. It would, for example, take an F-35 driver with boundless/misplaced optimism to fly against an island air defence system (like Singapore's) armed with current-day technology to deliver the miserable two bombs on target. If you wish, you could even pit an F-35 against an Su-30, like the ones they have up north, in a one-to-one gladiatorial contest and see if it can fly out again after stirring the hornet's nest.

That the F-35 has got short legs and a modest payload (to phrase it politely) counts against it. Ditto its uninspiring capabilities when pitted against current day dogfighters such as the F-16 or Su-30.

While the "stealth fighter" tagline is an instant conversation starter for defence buffs who are pro or anti-F-35, the stand first of the same article that said the warplane is a "costly jet" stands on firmer ground.

Hefty price tag
Even as the Ministry of Defence (MINDEF) and air warfare planners in the Republic of Singapore Air Force (RSAF) mull over the shape, form and lethality of Singapore's future air power capability, there are segments of defence-aware Singaporeans who have expressed private misgivings about the F-35's purported flyaway cost.

In and around Bukit Gombak, the figure touted is in the region of US$200 million per plane.

Now, you can argue that Singapore's peace and security is priceless. But there are many ways to defend our skies and the sound of freedom need not thunder out of the nozzle of a F-35B.

Options include buying more Boeing F-15 Strike Eagles, with bar talk suggesting that Singapore can buy several top-end F-15s for the price of a single F-35B.

Looking in the years ahead, there are unmanned options the RSAF can consider and if you are part of this conversation, there's no need to elaborate.

To be sure, the vision of overcoming land constraints by putting frontline military aviation on surface platforms is alluring. From a force survivability and operational flexibility point of view, there are convincing arguments for having strike aircraft based off mainland Singapore. The scenarios projected are interesting and yes, Singapore must start somewhere if potential game-changers are to be added to the list of Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) capability options.

However, Singapore's air warfare planners must be self-aware that tech infatuation is a malady that may afflict military minds subjected to LMCO's relentless marketing blitz to find and secure buyers for the costly fighter.

We must also remember that the aggressive push by the United States to grow the F-35 fraternity is made with its self interest in mind, as it fights to enlarge the pool of buyers to make it economically sensible to commence F-35 low-rate initial production.

High-low fighter force
Not mentioned in the article on South Korea's decision on the F-35 is its stablemate, the F-22 Raptor.

Air warfare professionals have noted that since the 1970s, the United States Air Force fighter fleet has been raised on a high-low concept, with a high performance fighter complemented by larger numbers of fighters with a more modest performance envelope.

The high-low mix was defined by the F-15s and F-16s. Not for nothing is the F-15SG described as Singapore's most capable fighter, even though in terms of product evolution, the F-15's product life cycle actually began years before that which led to the General Dynamics YF-16 lightweight fighter. The RSAF's present day order of battle which comprises F-15SGs and a large flock of three variants of the F-16 (we fly Southeast Asia's largest F-16 fleet) is the state-of-the-art that has been combat proven by the Israelis and is a combination also adopted by the South Koreans.

In theory, today's USAF sees itself fighting with a high-low mix comprising F-22s and F-35s.

The F-22 is not for sale, owing to its superior technology and low observable features that are said to give American fighter pilots  a winning edge against fifth generation fighter platforms. As far as stealth fighters go, the F-22 is the Real McCoy.

So countries which hanker for the F-35 are not in the same league, developmental cycle wise, as those which aspired to add the F-15 Eagle to their air force once upon a time in order to achieve the high-low mix. Countries that want the F-35 must realise they are chasing the "low" in the high-low mix as the F-22  is not for sale.

With the Singapore Airshow 2014 around the corner, you can bet LMCO will go great guns to tout the F-35 as the fighter for the future.

But with the F-22 - also made by LMCO - barred from its sales catalogue, Lockheed salesfolk have no option but to bet the farm on that costly fighter.

As for the Singapore media - so prone to calling every armoured vehicle a tank and every large warship a battleship - let's hope the defence writers can tell rhetoric from reality.


* The story on South Korea's decision on the F-35, plucked from wire agencies, could have been copy edited to sieve out the marketing fluff.