Rockets away! Bravo Battery 23rd Battalion Singapore Artillery fires first GMLRS during Exercise Forging Sabre

Missile away: Gunners from Bravo Battery, 23rd Battalion Singapore Artillery, let fly at enemy positions with Himars artillery rockets during Exercise Forging Sabre 2013, now unfolding in the Arizona desert in the United States.


With Bravo Battery 23 SA somewhere in the Barry M. Goldwater Range, Arizona: Taking aim at a target in the Arizona desert that he couldn't see with his own eyes, full-time National Service artillery gunner Third Sergeant (3SG) Tien Wei Xuan needed all the help he could get to place his rockets dead on target.

Hard enough to achieve in daylight in terra incognito, the Singapore Artillery gunners faced a bigger challenge with a fire mission issued after sundown in an exercise area where sky and land merged pitch black. This was done to test the capability and readiness of Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) units in sustaining the fight round-the-clock to break the tempo of the opposing force during the Exercise Forging Sabre war games.

3SG Tien got what he needed and more from SAF battle managers who helped the gunners make every shot count as they reached out to touch simulated enemy installations far away (HIMARS rockets can reach out to 70km). They did so using battle management computers tailored specifically for the SAF's C4ISTAR requirements by Singaporean defence science managed by the Defence Science & Technology Agency.

Heavy hitter meets heavy lifter: A HIMARS rocket launcher from 23 SA crowned by a RSAF CH-47D Chinook in the background during Exercise Forging Sabre. The CALFEX has allowed SAF air and ground forces to coordinate and integrate their firepower and support capabilities as battle managers from all three  SAF Services (yes, RSN personnel are here too) plan and execute integrated strikes day and night, in unfamiliar territory and at noteworthy distances.

He got the eyes on target, which is so vital for precision strikes, and demolished it with the press of a button from the armoured cabin of a Singapore Army HIMARS rocket artillery vehicle. Ground intelligence was courtesy of Singapore Army Commandos who lurked some distance away who had the enemy target under close observation.

Another source of target data came from a ScanEagle Unmanned Aerial Vehicle. The UAV orbited noiselessly, persistently and inquisitively over the battlefield to provide SAF battle managers with a rich source of real-time data.

Sustaining the fight: A HIMARS launcher receives a fresh pod of rockets with live munitions during Exercise Forging Sabre 2013. Not apparent in this picture are the cold conditions that SAF regulars, NSFs and NSmen had to toil under, testing personal endurance and adaptability during a demanding conventional warfare exercise scenario that involved day and night kinetic operations over long distances. The desert sky was indeed electric blue when this picture was taken. Photo credit: Ministry of Defence

3SG Tien need not have travelled halfway around the globe to the Barry M. Goldwater Range just outside Phoenix, Arizona, to practice rocket firing. He could have done anytime any day at any lift in Singapore, so similar are the muscle movements.

Bravo Battery and elements from the 24th Battalion Singapore Artillery (24 SA, a battalion known as the firefinders. They help gunners find their targets.) flew here to gain firsthand experience working the sensor-to-shooter cycle at a combined live-fire exercise or CALFEX. The experience conducting a fire mission which resulted in the discharge of live munitions was the invaluable part of XFS that cannot be replicated in Singapore.

Unfamiliar ground, winter weather that saw night time temperatures in the desert plunge from the high teens in Celsius to just above freezing was just one of the challenges at the SAF's largest exercise. SAF units at Forging Sabre were also stalking by fellow soldiers and RSAF warplanes playing the part of the "red" forces who were determined to make it a tough fight.

Fire commands that lead to a live rocket launch from a HIMARS - its name stands for High Mobility Artillery Rocket System - were practised during about a dozen field exercise in Singapore by 3SG Tien and his fellow NSF gunners from Bravo Battery, 23rd Battalion Singapore Artillery (23 SA) executed the firing sequence with "live" ammunition for the first time.

The 23 SA gunners did so as they had been trained, confident in the knowledge that they knew precisely what to do, even in terra incognito, in harsh winter weather conditions and under pressure from "higher command" closely monitoring the battery's every move.

With the target singled out for destruction by SAF battle managers, now came the moment for Bravo Battery 23 SA to reach out and touch it.

He did so, a calm military professional who belied his age and showed he had grown up in his year plus NS experience into a full-fledged gunner about to fire the SAF's first satellite-guided rocket round. Tonight, he was Launcher 3.

As higher command in the CP approved the rocket strike, the order was relayed to Bravo Battery's CP for their information and necessary action. The order to fire is then issued.

"Command to Launcher 3, Arm, over."

"Launcher 3 to Command. Launcher armed. Out."

"Command to Launcher 3, Cancel. At my command: Fire."

Within his armoured cabin bathed in orange light and with blast shields protecting the glass windows, 3SG Tien's rocket team initiated several actions prior to opening fire. The NBC overpressure protection system was started so that exhaust  gases from the rocket plume would not enter the cabin. He then depressed the fire button.

A split second delay and the rockets roared off into the inky darkness.

What 3SG Tien and his crew did not see was the response in the Command Post miles away. As the SAF's first GMLRS soared into space, all eyes in the CP were locked on the screen showing its flight path and another screen that showed what the target area looked like. Both real time images were captured by SAF UAVs.

The rocket scored a direct hit that saw an enormous fireball erupt at target centre, triggering applause in the CP, making history as this was the first GMLRS munition ever launched by the Singapore Army and pushing morale in Bravo Battery sky high.

"Launcher 3 to Command, Rocket 1, all last shot. Over."

"Command to Launcher 3, Rocket 1. All last shot. Out."

Mission accomplished.


Acknowledgements
The writer extends his thanks to the Singapore Artillery for that splendid afternoon and night shoot, for the free hot water :-) and the company of citizen soldiers figuring things out in a strange, chilly yet friendly land far from home.

USMC F-35B performs for Singaporean Minister of Defence Dr Ng Eng Hen

Note: We just completed an interview with DM. Will update the story in due course, hopefully with pictures.

United States Air Force Luke Air Force Base, Phoenix, Arizona: The world's most advanced warplane capable of short take-offs and vertical landings, the F-35B Joint Strike Fighter (JSF), staged a 16-minute aerial display for Defence Minister Dr Ng Eng Hen and Ministry of Defence (MINDEF) officials, stoking speculation among military watchers that Singapore's position on the JSF is imminent.

The aerial display took place after Dr Ng and Chief of  Air Force of the Republic of Singapore  Air Force (RSAF), Major-General Hoo Cher Mou were introduced to another F-35B on static display at Luke AFB.

The F-35B "06" (168724) that Dr Ng and  MG Hoo saw is flown by United States Marine Corps (USMC) unit VMFA-121. The static JSF was displayed outside the flightline for the USAF 944th Fighter Wing and had its weapons bay closed throughout the visit.

Though the USAF Luke AFB Public Affairs office issued a Facebook updated that announced the F-35Bs would call at the airbase - the world's largest F-16 training base -  security at the event was tight as Singaporean media were not allowed to take pictures of the operational F-35Bs.

A security cordon was also thrown around the static display JSF, with non VIP visitors allowed no closer than 20 feet from the warplane. Dr Ng and CAF were the only ones brought around the aircraft from 10:40am local time.

Dr Ng tried out the F-35B's pilot helmet, which helps the pilot fuse information from various sensors, mounted a ladder to look at the cockpit and briefed on the JSF's nose-mounted sensors and design features of the warplane.

The 16-minute aerial display saw a second F-35B make a low level passes over the airbase at a low airspeed that fighter planes apart from USMC Harrier ground attack planes are not capable of performing.

The finale saw the JSF pilot hover his aircraft almost in front of the Singaporean visitors. It then pivoted slightly to the left and dipped its nose forward before turning again and resuming its flight in the previous direction before landing.

Exercise Forging Sabre 2013 - SAF battle managers practice Dynamic Targeting to deal with air/land targets

Nerve centre: The nerves that move the muscle at Exercise Forging Sabre 2013 are directed from this Singapore Armed Forces Command Post set up at Luke Air Force Base in Arizona. Picture: Ministry of Defence, Singapore

United States Air Force Luke Air Force Base, Phoenix, Arizona: The best view of the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) Forging Sabre war games, now in full swing in the Arizona desert in the United States, comes from a windowless room about the size of a large lecture hall whose front stage has been turned into a vast video wall.

This is the Command Post for the SAF's largest and most complex live-fire war games and we have been invited to watch battle managers at work.

The scene reminds one of the local pub on soccer night during a tense moment in the match with everyone's gaze locked onto the action; a stock market gallery where punters hedge their bets; a supersized LAN gaming room where the ultimate, multiplayer, real-time online combat game is being played.

SAF battle managers in action
Nine outsized plasma screens are placed across the width of the room in two rows, commanding the attention from the audience of dozens of SAF personnel from the Singapore Army, Republic of Singapore Navy and Republic of Singapore Air Force. These indicate the pulse of the clash between SAF air and land combat forces - things like live imagery from UAVs, number of warplanes in the air, maps showing territory gained - in the vast Arizona desert and SAF units hand-picked to play the part of a resilient and credible enemy.

Each warfighter stares at the screens in rapt attention and issues/acknowledges orders in respectful silence. [One shout from Tiger Hong, the legendary sergeant major from the First Generation SAF would probably have blown everyone from their seats.] This is the Third Generation SAF, decision cycles for Dynamic Targeting are faster, the results on the battlefield executed with more devastating effect and our battle managers in the Command Centre are hard at work without the torrent of shouts common to battles past.

Here, professionals are at work.

The ultra modern is complemented by the quirky: push button telephones in glossy black plastic and 1970s-era handsets with a loud Old Phone ringtone to match. These warn SAF battle managers of impending action (air strikes or rocket artillery barrages) far away; their ring a cue that inevitably triggers the flurry of rapid-fire typing on keyboards across the room as battle managers rely commands across the ether.

There is also the mind boggling jargon as everyone talks in military-speak: Sweepers refer to warplanes sent ahead of RSAF air strikes to sweep away aerial opposition with a cloud of air-to-air missiles. Hammertime is called when our air force pilots are about to knock the daylights out of an enemy target using one of the 60 precision-guided munitions that will be launched, fired or dropped during the war games.

Each of the 18 giant plasma screens provide a update of the unfolding battle between SAF ground and air combat forces duke it out with a "red team" several kilometres away in the vast expanse of the Barry M. Goldwater Range - this is a US military training area about 19 times bigger than Singapore. Every giant screens up front is completed by a terrace of seats, placed in rows like a school lecture theatre where neat lines of even more flat screen computer terminals teach dozens of SAF warfighters the art, science and emotions of war fought/lost in front of colleagues and under the watchful gaze of longer serving SAF officers and advisors.

That this war games means something to the SAF comes from the list of superlatives Ministry of Defence (MINDEF) and the SAF share when talking about the exercise: most number of precision guided munitions of all types will be fired, first time a satellite-guided rocket will be launched, most complex integration of how the SAF finds, fixes and finishes the enemy.

Growth of Forging Sabre
Exercise Forging Sabre first made the news in 2005 as the SAF's proof of concept for integrated strike. In 2009, the command post for integrated strike warfare was tested and operationalized, along with the addition of a new heavy hitter, the Himars rocket artillery system. And the last exercise in 2011 saw F-15SG Strike Eagles, the RSAF's most advanced warplanes, obliterate targets in the Arizona desert alongside the long-serving yet agile F-16C/D fighter jets.

At Forging Sabre 2013, the good guys are in for a surprise: The most telling statistic that emphasizes the growth of the war games in realism and complexity comes from the decision by SAF defence planners to upsize the number and sophistication of the simulated enemy.

So while in 2011, the "red" or enemy forces comprised RSAF warplanes sent up to provide token resistance, the enemy has evolved brains and brawn.

Credible enemy
RSAF Senior Lieutenant Colonel Ho Yong Peng - whose initials "HYP" christened him with the callsign Hyper -  plays the fictional "enemy" as Red Air Commander. He explained:"We want to ensure the SAF gets realistic training and want to make sure we train as well shall fight. As you know, in war, you will have a thinking, adapting enemy, never staying still and who still wants to strike."

SAF battle managers have to contend with a hostile air force armed with beyond visual range air-to-air missiles and an air defence system that forces RSAF warfighters to fight their way through contested airspace en route to their targets.

SLTC Ho added:"You don't expect the enemy to play fair. We make sure we have plans and tactics to punish them and make sure SAF forces never  have an easy day in the field."

His Red Land Commander counterpart, Colonel Andrew Lim, is equally fired up to remind SAF warfighters in Arizona their trip here is no holiday.

To maximise realism, COL Lim said the SAF Wargame Centre uses battle simulations to create enemy land forces on plasma screens that test how SAF battle managers cope with challenging scenarios such as having more targets than assets to strike which forces commanders to prioritise targets.

"This exercise puts a Division Strike Centre through its paces," said COL Lim, referring to the heart of the Army division's command structure where battle orders are planned and initiated.

The simulations SAF friendly forces see on their screens can also simulate events such as the firing of rockets by the enemy or impediments to movement that could arise from having to minimise collateral damage to civilians in urban areas.

To fight back, the vast expanse of the US military's Barry M. Goldwater Range allows friendly forces to take out the targets simulated on computer screens with fire missions against simulated targets in the real world. These include command posts, moving targets such as columns of enemy armour and high value targets such as aircraft shelters.

Amid the ferocity of battle - no SAF battle manager red or blue worth his salt lets the enemy walk over him/her - there is much learning after each bruising encounter.

The same Command Post host joint debriefings where all SAF forces who took part in a particular battle encounter get together to exchange viewpoints, make new acquaintances and forge new ones as they ensure the sharp end of the SAF remains credible, powerful and ready.


Acknowledgements:
With grateful thanks to the Ministry of Defence Singapore for hosting this study visit.

Visit to Luke Air Force Base

Dear Readers,

The facebook post from Luke AFB has been updated to the version below.

We understand that Singapore accepted the invitation by the United States to demo the F-35 at Luke Air Force Base during Defence Minister Dr Ng Eng Hen's visit to the base, as part of his visit to Exercise Forging Sabre.

 

Best regards,

David

Luke AFB, Arizona-56th Fighter Wing

4 hours ago

UPDATED MEDIA ADVISORY!!!
F-35B aircraft expected to visit Luke AFB Dec. 10...

F-35B aircraft from Marine Corps Air Station Yuma are expected to be flying at Luke AFB from approximately 10:30 a.m. to noon on Tuesday, Dec. 10. Senior defense officials from Singapore are visiting the base as part of Forging Sabre, a Singapore armed forces exercise taking place at Luke and at the Barry M. Goldwater ...training range. Singapore is considering purchasing F-35s in the future.
The F-35B is the “short takeoff and vertical landing” variant of the aircraft developed for the U.S. Marine Corps. It is configured differently than the F-35A “conventional takeoff and landing” variant used by the U.S. Air Force. The first of Luke’s F-35A aircraft are expected to arrive in early 2014.
Luke will not be hosting media for the event, but media and the general public are welcome to observe the aircraft flying in the pattern from public areas outside the base.

Admin Note: Outbound

Just a quick note to inform everyone that I'm now on transit, outbound for another study visit.

Stay tuned for more.

Full reports and firsthand accounts will follow in due course. T'kasih.

Republic of Singapore Navy Type 218SG submarine buy caps 18-year journey in underwater warfare

This week's announcement that Singapore has ordered two new Type 218SG submarines from Germany sends a clear and definitive answer to the question floated more than 18 years ago when defence planners pondered adding subs to the Republic of Singapore Navy (RSN).

When German shipyard ThyssenKrupp delivers the boats from 2020, the Type 218SGs - the world's most modern conventional subs - and two Archer-class subs presently in service will give the RSN the largest fleet of submarines in Southeast Asia (provided regional fleets stay the same).

It is an acquisition to cheer; a prudent hedge against choppy waters in regional sealanes.

With the subs operating in concert with the RSN's six Formidable-class stealth warships - the world's most heavily-armed frigates which can collectively bring into play up to 144 anti-ship missiles - and with the Republic of Singapore Air Force flying top cover, the seaward defences of Singapore will never have been sharper.

The Singapore navy may not have made it this far, if Ministry of Defence (MINDEF) and RSN defence planners were not given the time, know-how and resources needed to make an informed case for or against buying subs.

And so, in September 1995, Singapore took the plunge when it bought a single, low-cost second-hand sub from Sweden to see if the RSN should add subs to its fleet. Yes, we bought a submarine to assess if we should add subs to the RSN.

Try before buy
If that leap of logic baffles you, bear in mind that MINDEF/SAF force planners in the 1990s were pitted against a formidable anti-submarine "weapon" - a sceptical and influential politician whose say-so carries some heft. That politician was Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore's founding father.

"Every armed force believes it ought to upgrade. For years I told the Singapore Armed Forces, which wanted submarines 'You are crazy. These are shallow waters. You will easily be detected and bombarded with depth charges.'

"But well, OK. Here is the Swedish submarine. The economy is doing well and it is a cheap sub. Its purchase will still be within the 5 per cent of GDP  assigned to defence. So, why not use it for some training," said Mr Lee in his first comments on the RSN's foray into submarine warfare.(Straits Times 11 Oct 1995)

To his credit, the time and space Mr Lee allowed the RSN has helped shape Fleet RSN into the compact yet credible fighting force it is today.

Sub operations from S'pore
Subs are not new to Singapore. Prior to the Second World War, British naval planners recognised their value even in the shallow seas around Singapore. The Royal Navy's 4th Flotilla of submarines operated out of Sembawang Naval Base. That we heard nothing of their contribution to the Battle of Singapore was due to their redeployment to the eastern Mediterranean during the halcyon two years and three months before the outbreak of war in the Pacific.

As war raged in Europe, the aircraft carrier which operated from Singapore, HMS Eagle, was also reassigned to Mediterranean waters to bolster British naval forces fighting the combined might of German and Italian forces. There, the subs and aircraft carrier from Singapore fought with distinction.

Had they remained in the Far East, it would be fascinating to contemplate the "what-if" scenario involving the Royal Navy's Force Z centered on the battleship, HMS Prince of Wales, the battle cruiser, HMS Repulse, with the weak escort of just four destroyers.

Alas, both Prince of Wales and Repulse were sunk on 10 December 1941 by Japanese bombers off Kuantan. But their loss underlined the importance of fighting a naval war in regional waters with a "balanced" navy - which in today's context means having naval forces able to conduct operations against surface, underwater, aerial targets as well as packing an electronic warfare capability to be used against sensors like radars and guided weapons.

MINDEF/SAF defence planners have apparently heeded these lessons well.

In the past 18 years, the RSN has looked at more than merely adding more subs to its order of battle. The first hand-me-down from Sweden, renamed RSS Challenger, was joined by three other Challenger-class boats before a more capable albeit second-hand class of sub, which we renamed the Archer-class, was bought from Sweden.

Uniquely Singapore
Singapore has recognised that submarine support operations are vital too. Today, the RSN is the only Southeast Asian navy with a submarine rescue capability complemented by strong underwater medicine expertise. This is a low-profile capability, arguably less eye-catching and not as sexy as warships with all their guns and missiles, but is one that is nonetheless vital for submariners to have peace of mind while at sea.

Singapore has also used its defence science know-how to give our submarines a secure homeport to operate from. The reinforced concrete submarine pen at Changi Naval Base is probably unique in the region as it allows our subs to berth within a concrete enclosure, protected from the elements, prying eyes and enemy munitions.

Above all, the thousands of defence engineers are a precious asset that has allowed the RSN to order successive generations of subs tailored-made for local waters.

It is no accident that Internet search engines scouring cyberspace have failed to suggest the vital statistics or an artist's impression of our newly-ordered subs. This is because the Type 218SGs are said to be a class of sub specially designed for the RSN. The name change is not merely to allay  suggestions that ThyssenKrupp's current Type 214 subs were rebranded as "214" sounds like "sure to die" in Cantonese while "218" has a more auspicious "sure to prosper" ring to it. :-)

Homegrown expertise
Going forward, the "customised submarines" the RSN will receive from Germany make it clear that homegrown defence science know-how will be used to build a combat information system that forms the heart of the Type 218SG's combat potential.

In this regard, the Defence Science & Technology Agency (DSTA), which is spearheading the effort  to deliver the subs with German partners, has strong expertise to draw upon. The combat system that ties together various sensors and weapon systems aboard the Formidable-class frigates is the product of Singaporean defence engineers, who delivered the goods despite initial cynicism from foreign defence observers who could not believe the empty frigate hulls could be kitted out by Singaporean hands.

But we did it and several Defence Technology Prizes - the Oscars of Singapore's defence science community - were scooped by various project teams associated with the stealth frigate project.

To be sure, the task at hand for integrating various bits and pieces for a bespoke man-of-war designed to sink and fight from beneath the waves will be complex and will test the diligence and creativity of our defence scientists and naval planners.

However, thanks to the foresight of defence planners 18 years ago, the Type 218SG project team can draw upon nearly two decades of experience in sub operations plus a growing alumni of MINDEF/SAF underwater warfare experts.

One has little doubt that the Type 218SG project team stands to earn its own Defence Technology Prizes in time to come.

The coming Red tide: China's ambitious push into the South China Sea and its impact on Singapore

Although Singapore is far enough from China's Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) that our foreign ministry and defence ministry staffers can enjoy their normal weekend, the question that begs asking is whether Chinese aggression assertiveness nationalistic endeavours will stop at just imposing an air curtain off the Chinese seaboard.

If this is a sign of things to come, one can expect even more from the People's Republic of China (PRC) when (and not "if") it builds the military muscle to project and sustain its naval presence in the South China Sea (SCS).

At the current state of play, China's ADIZ can be monitored using its mainland air defence assets and naval units maintaining a radar picket offshore.

Naval aviation is confined to shipborne helicopters or mainland-based warplanes whose operational radii are tethered to their air-to-air refuelling capability or internal fuel and drop tanks.

Their sole aircraft carrier, Liaoning, is more a prop, a showpiece that makes an impressive backdrop for photo shoots involving carrier-borne fighters or PLAN heavy units. That single training carrier, devoid of an established concept of operations grounded on sound naval doctrine, operating with no organic AEW&C aircraft, sailing without the security of an outer perimeter of light forces, submarines and an inner ring of heavy naval units, no UNREP support ships worth talking about, is not a serious contender should she be pitted against present day naval forces in the region.

PRC naval aviation in 2030
But telescope China's military capabilities 15 years forward, sustained at the current growth trajectory, and one is likely to count fully operational two aircraft carriers that can project China's military ambitions closer to our neighbourhood.

By 2030, the ruffled feathers over the ADIZ would have long accepted the zone as status quo.

By 2030, regional analysts would have been desensitised to years of watching China's air and naval forces operate in the South China Sea.

That may pave the way for China to assert a stronger presence in the neighbourhood, using its SCS islets as anchor points and the aircraft carriers as patches of sovereign Chinese territory from which it can generate and sustain naval air cover.

Having China declare and secure territorial waters around South China Sea islets would change the game for defence planners so used to watching what the neighbours are up to. Emboldened by the ADIZ experience acquired in 2013, it would be interesting to theorise if they would pull a similar gig in the SCS once they have the military muscle to back words with deed.

Strategic realities
All the present-day talk about military options against China and analysis of how Red China is militarily weak compared to regional forces ignores two strategic realities.

First, military action against the PRC must reckon how industry would react when China is, and will continue to be, essentially the world's factory. Hitting China is unlike bombing the Ruhr during WW2. Industry magnates would have done their sums and quiet lobbying may hamstring military options, particularly when Western economic interests are at stake should things turn nasty.

Second, order of battle comparisons and us-versus-them scenarios generated by defence analysts and armchair generals from *insert your country of choice* seem to ignore the reality such tussles might see Chinese tactical nukes thrown into the equation. What then? Yes, it is mad. But many wars have stemmed from miscalculations of minor consequence snowballing into wider strategic effect (think about how the complex interplay of strategic alliances led to WW1 after Archduke Ferdinand was shot).

Dearth of analysis
Cold War calculations benefitted richly from decades of analysis which bred two/three generations of experten who devoted their lives to analysing how war across the Iron Curtain could flare. All sorts of scenarios from limited exchange on short warning, long war scenarios, proxy wars, launch on warning/launch on impact, command relationships with strategic nuclear forces, second strike capabilities and so on were studied and discussed extensively. Effects on global weather patterns were theorised (nuclear winter), movies were made and best seller novels on Cold War battles became vacation staples.

All this brain power amassed over the years made a positive and decisive contribution to deterrence. Because both sides understood the chilling costs of war. And no one was left to any doubt about the cost of miscalculation.

Compared to the Cold War, the standoff between China and its neighbours suffers from a dearth of literature which helps us get a better grasp of the situation.*

Concerns expressed in the past week about the ADIZ becoming a flashpoint probably stem from the realisation of the dreadful consequences that have resulted when one mixes nation willpower with misfired firepower.

Singapore's Foreign Minister K. Shanmugan said on 29 November'13 at the Global Outlook Forum in the lion city:"An incident can easily happen and we, the rest of the world, are to some extent hostage to what some ship captains might do. And how he might get us all involved in a conflagration that no one wants."

The concerns are not theoretical musings or scare mongering, but anchored on the substantial body count from the recent past in and around our immediate neighbourhood.

The April 2001 Hainan Incident, which resulted when a Chinese fighter jet collided with a United States (US) Navy EP-3 electronic surveillance plane off Hainan - where China's strategic submarines are based - is one example.

The September 1983 downing of Korean Air Lines Boeing 747 Flight KAL 007 off Russia's Sakhalin island, after a Russian air defence fighter guided by confused GCI controllers in the dark went weapons free is another.

Farther afield, we have the July 1988 case of the US Navy Aegis cruiser, USS Vincennes, shooting down Iran Air Airbus A300 Flight 655 after mistaking the airliner for an incoming flight of Iranian F-14 Tomcat warplanes. The Vincennes, in its time one of the latest US Navy warships, had info fusion capabilities that were then state-of-the-art. But this did not prevent the slaughter of innocents.

Whether it's a military-to-military encounter, warplane versus airliner or warship versus airliner, the tragedies that unfolded are real and may be sadly replayed should push come to shove in regional air and sea lanes. What's sobering to note is the individuals involved in shooting down the Korean and Iranian airliners were never brought to justice - which is a point ADIZ missileers and PRC foreign ministry staffers may have pondered.

A more robust presence by China in the SCS in not a cause for alarm. But it is unquestionable that  the region's strategic situation will be impacted, depending on the size, strength and longevity of Chinese military power sitting astride air and sea lanes that link Southeast Asia with key markets in North Asia.

What remains to be seen is if insurance underwriters can be similarly assured if and when China's naval ensign flies high in the SCS. Wasn't it not so long ago when Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore worked hard - collectively and energetically - to convince Lloyd's of London to remove the "War Risk" label for the Malacca Strait due to piracy/sea robber activity? We did so as this category would push up hull premiums and lead to higher shipping costs which, somewhere sometime downstream, would push up price tags for things we buy.

It is still some years away. Defence planners looking ahead must be aware that the current state-of-the-art - stealth warships or submarines - may be due for upgrading or replacement by 2030. What matters is the awareness that one should look beyond the immediate neighbourhood to factor in other players who can be expected to trail their coats off one's doorstep, in years to come.

Be that as it may, what is intriguing is the Chinese mindset that seeks to sweep aside and explain away regional concerns about its unilaterally declared ADIZ - air traffic has not been disrupted (true), it is within China's sovereign rights to do so (true) and that other nations have done so too (true).

It is not so much the rhetoric but more the intellectual intransigence in being able or willing to see the other side's point of view and bulldozing forth with one's perspective that points to the kind of future we can expect to see when the Red tide flows south.**

We can look further north than we're already used to, or we can sit tight and be totally blasé about regional geo-politics, only to wake up in 2030 to realise that the Singapore coastline pre-WW2 was better defended against warships than the city in the garden we're building together.




* This paragraph from The Straits Times report on the Global Outlook Forum is a case in point. An ST  journalist theorised why the US flew B-52 bombers in the ADIZ:"He pointed out that the US chose B-52s - rather than, say, the F-35 stealth fighters - for the mission. B-52s are the biggest planes in the US fleet, he said, with the largest radar  profiles, so the message from the US was that 'we want you to know', he said." (ST 30 Nov'13, page A8 'Top of the News')

With respect, the analysis is farcical. Had the US sent F-35 fighters with stealth features, the message would have been heard loud and clear not just in Beijing but around the world as the F-35s are not even in operational service. The journalist would have done nicely leaving it generically at "stealth fighters" without elaborating on type ("If unsure, leave it out" - Journalism 101). Or he could have mentioned F-22s, which have flown show-of-force missions in this region - and made paying participants at the forum feel they got their money's worth.


** Speaking of not being able to see the other side's point of view, the risks to flight safety when military flights take-off at their own whim and fancy without due regard to Air Traffic Control instructions was made apparent during the TNI's recent Angkasa Yudha war games. Indonesia's largest deployment of warplanes to Hang Nadim Airport in Batam came under the guidance from Changi Airport's ATC, as agreed by Indonesia as the airport's radar coverage is rudimentary. This blog is aware that some TNI flights took to the skies, destination Natunas, while ignoring instructions from Changi whose job was to ensure safe flight separation between commercial traffic and the TNI warplanes.