A Greek tragedy: Security implications of GE 2016's change in management

Greeks will cast their votes tomorrow for a new government in a legislative election that has captured world attention.

Singaporeans will get their chance to do so come 2016 when a General Election (GE) is held to pick elected representatives for the Lion City's 13th Parliament.

If Internet chatter is to be believed, GE 2016 will be a watershed moment in Singapore's electoral history. Netizens have seeded theories that the upcoming GE will be the one where political giants are unrooted with fresh blood brought into Parliament House to give an alternative voice to Singaporeans.

As your vote is secret, it's anybody's guess what voting patterns will look like in 2016. Supporters of the Men in White (MIW) point to decades of peace, progress and prosperity as assurances that Singaporeans will continue to vote the party into power. Those in other camps cheer the trend analysis for GE 2011 and are buoyed by prospects of a stronger vote share at the next GE.

Role of the SAF and Home Team post GE 2016
Whichever theory holds true, the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) and Home Team agencies (police, civil defence, prisons, anti narcotics and immigration authorities) will have to obey the political party voted into power. The mission of protecting Singapore's vital interests will have to continue - people can vote in whichever politician they fancy but can never vote out or wish away security threats.

The party voted into power come 2016 will find itself in charge of a modernised Third Generation SAF that is powerfully armed, operationally ready and continues to evolve to update itself against emerging threats. Upkeep of such military power is expensive. The budget for the Ministry of Defence (MINDEF) commands the biggest slice of the Singapore Budget and represents about a third of government spending. This is a cash cow newbie politicians may be tempted to slaughter in an effort to redirect funds to appease voters.

The security implications of a status quo are well known as the MIW has led Singapore since its expulsion from the Federation of Malaysia in 1965. The impact on Singapore's security scene of a new party voted into power will be the topic du jour as we should think through what this means for the SAF and Home Team and, most important of all, for Singaporeans who brought this change unto themselves. This is the freak election result theory that the MIW has long warned us about. Is this merely scare mongering or is there more to it that is beyond the obvious?

GE 2016: Freak election result

The last vote has been counted and results of GE 2016 are shared in realtime in cyberspace and via the mainstream media. The reality for Singaporeans is slowly beginning to sink in: The MIW have been voted out.

Newspapers from the mainstream media scramble to meet print deadlines - MIW or no MIW, the printer will not wait for you. Newsrooms go for a straight news story by giving readers the bare facts and results of the polls in all constituencies. The analysis can come later. In any case, there is no way or time for journalists to sugarcoat the GE 2016 result.

Blogs go into overdrive cheering the landmark result. News discussion portals see a spike in comments from armchair political analysts. Some websites crash, swamped by the amount of traffic from Singaporeans local and abroad hungry for news.

Lights burn bright in many households with S xxxx CD-numberplate cars. Among the political-watchers are embassy and high commission staff who burn the midnight oil churning out diplomatic cables that are wired securely to the world's political capitals. Dossiers on new politicians are prepared and diplomatic positions are crafted for their respective governments.

At MINDEF GSOC, the live TV reports stun the officers on duty, all of whom had cast their vote earlier. It is a major talking point for the duty personnel, breaking the monotony of the graveyard shift. But the alert status of Alert Red Force SAF units remains the same and the SAF remains within its fenceline.

New political masters

As the sun creeps over the South China Sea, Singaporeans wake up to the reality that the promised defeat of the MIW has come true. Newspaper vendors sell out their day's consignment of papers in every language and the afternoon newspapers churn out a larger print run to capitalise on street sales. Even as politicians lick their wounds, there is money to be made.

There is money to be made shorting the Singapore dollar too. As money traders juice up their LED screens for a new work day, the USD:SGD rates shock observers. Net-savvy Singaporeans who purchase stuff online do a double take when they see exchange rates quoted by Paypal. This is the result of a global currency trading system that finds itself in terra incognito after GE 2016. The election result triggers a wave of uncertainty and a flight to safety. The Sing dollar, backed by nothing but a promise of stability as a safe haven in Southeast Asia, waits to see if the island nation's new political masters can convince the international community that it is business as usual. In the meantime, the watchword for currency traders is "sell".

As the political party voted into power scrambles to decide who will lead assorted ministries, power-brokering takes place behind the scenes as Opposition parties scramble to assert their influence. Parties with a small presence in Parliament peg a high price to their willingness to join a coalition. The new party needs a strong majority in Parliament to move things forward and as a counterweight to the MIW, who is the new opposition. Though voted out, the MIW claim a sizeable presence in Parliament.

Across the island, heartlanders who own their property thanks to decades-long mortages by banks are in trouble. Valuations nosedive as buyers stay away from making big ticket purchases until the new political landscape is charted out. Thousands find themselves in a situation of negative equity as homes purchased during the height of the housing boom in 2012 are worth far less on the open market.

Enter our foreign talent: Buoyed by liquidity stashed in their home currencies, which are now far stronger compared to the Sing dollar, foreigners go shopping. Thanks to political uncertainty bordering on turmoil, foreigners turned PRs strengthen their presence in Singapore snapping up cheap homes. These PRs are transients anyway with no desire to stay in Singapore for long. They hope to make a quick buck flipping property, then migrate to Australia, Canada, New Zealand or the United States or elsewhere.

With a question mark placed over Singapore's political future - which could shine under the new party or fade away - investors decide to play it safe by not investing in Singapore for the moment.

Enter the vultures: Economic agencies of foreign countries, sensing a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, woo MNCs to relocate to their country with tax breaks, grants and pioneer status incentives. The war plan of these vultures is a facsimile of the plan hatched by Singapore's Dr Goh Keng Swee to convince foreign investors to set up shop in Singapore, thus providing much needed investments and jobs for Singaporeans. The plan is half a century old, but it works exceedingly well even in 2016. White and blue collar Singaporeans lose their jobs by the thousands as companies bid goodbye to Singapore. Rents in the Central Business District collapse as tenants pull out. This is business.

The swearing in of Singapore's 13th Parliament makes it an unlucky 13 for the MIW, especially stalwarts who believe in fengshui. Many former ministers are now backbenchers. A number of MIW politicians who lost their seats quit politics, following the lead of former ministers like George Yeo and Lim Hwee Hua who retired from politics after losing their seats in GE 2011.

Defence expenditure

After the initial euphoria, uncertainty over Singapore's future and the reality that jobs are being lost goads the new government into action. The cash cow of defence spending is slashed. Money saved from defence is used to sweeten the lips of heartlanders through various schemes.

The SAF is ordered to cut its expenditure and activity-based budgeting is tightly enforced. To further please the people, National Service is to be cut progressively to one year with exceptions for talented Singaporeans, which is the solution anonymous netizens have asked for. The new Minister for Defence is inundated with requests for NS exceptions from parents who claim their kids are talented and demand exemption. These talents include a mixed bag of esoteric skills ranging from playing chess to finger painting and strumming guitars. Anxious to please voters, MINDEF is forced to rubber stamp these exemptions. This gives rise to a new cottage industry of exemption letter writers who can draft a convincingly letter for a handsome fee.

The Purge

As the new party settles into its rhythm, Singapore's new political elite starts to assert its presence in Singapore's political landscape. They are, afterall, Singapore's new ruling elite, the powers-that-be that are a force to be reckoned with. The father to son arrangement has given way to a coalition of parties that count a husband and wife duo and a brother and sister/favoured uncle arrangement. Singaporeans learn the true extent of political infighting, reported by the mainstream media years ago, that has stymied political renewal in the smaller parties.

New brooms sweep clean and it is time for the political elite to stamp its influence. With the powerful one golden share in Singapore Press Holdings, the new government decides to revamp editorial leadership in print and broadcast media. The purge is as brutal as it is expected. Editors are given marching orders. Singapore's mainstream media finds a new voice. It is easier to reshuffle the chain of command at state-owned broadcaster, MediaCorp.

Next comes the Singapore Civil Service. Long regarded as the bastion behind Singapore's efficiency and success as a city-state, the new political elites set their eyes on purging the civil service of personalities too closely allied to the MIW. The cull goes wider than the civil service.

They set their sights on weeding out the intelligentsia and academics allied by blood ties or career loyalty to the MIW. Labour unions and grassroot organisations such as the People's Association (PA) are not spared in the manpower renewal exercise of a scale unseen before in Singapore's history.

Along the way, opportunists sensing a chance to fast forward their careers and CEPs step into the picture. Even from Polling Day, Singapore's new political elite has been actively courted by sweet-talking opportunists who send congratulatory emails and SMSes praising them to high heaven. Worse are the poison pen letter writers who backstab their bosses, detailing their every move in support of the ousted MIW in an attempt to gain a higher perch in the new pecking order. This arse licking pays dividends. The new political elites cannot do everything by themselves. They will need hands and legs to run Singapore, the civil service, the media, academia, government organisations and quasi-government bodies, and so the politically astute junior and mid-level officers who dabble in political machinations find that this pays of handsomely.

Blame game

Months after Singapore's new Prime Minister is sworn in, the people's patience wears thin. The novelty of a new government that cannot put food on the table chafes nerves. The PM needs to buy time. So, in the battel for hearts and minds, public relations strategists play the blame game. Voting in a new party during GE 2016 does not put an end to the anonymous sniping in cyberspace directed against the MIW. They have been in power for 50 years and the new government blames the MIW's enduring legacy as the reason behind why Singapore cannot progress.

The online criticism and bitching continues with every fault laid at the feet of the ousted MIW. Singapore's new political masters are pleased as this bogeyman strategy buys them time to get their act together.

Some Singaporeans buy the argument. The global community continues to sell Singapore dollars. Consumer confidence falls as unemployment rises, giving bloggers a field day with dark poetry of the Lion City's new political situation.

With their Sing dollars devalued, inflation hits household savings on this resource-deprived island nation hard. Essential foodstuff, clothing and fuel - almost 100 per cent imported - are traded at unheard of prices. The government draws on emergency stockpiles of rice and fuel, bought at pre-election prices several months ago, and sells them at NTUC Fairprice supermarkets at the price consumers used to pay in an effort to quell public anger. It is a quick fix but it works - but supplies will not last more than six months. This move places Singapore in a precarious position to weather supply disruptions as the new government sees no immediate need to replenish the emergency stockpile.

With rising unemployment, street demonstrations are seen on Singaporean streets for the first time in decades. Social media is exploited by ring leaders comprising unemployed and disgruntled citizens to organised flash mob demos islandwide. An emaciated Singapore Police Force, worn down by budget cuts, fails to ring fence Singapore against roving gangs of anarchists who travel the world to spark off destructive street riots. Unbeknownst to the Singaporean organisers of the peaceful flash mob who are determined to exercise their human rights, masked foreign anarchists infiltrate street demos to incite violence. It is only a matter of time before the flash mob obliges. A final warning by Singapore Police Force Special Operations Command troopers goes unheeded and the riot police do what they are trained to do. Gunfire erupts on Singaporean streets for the first time since the 1969 race riots.

Deadly intent: Not "Disperse or we arrest" or "Disperse or we fine" or "Disperse or we cane". In the Internet age, any attempt to execute the "Disperse or we fire" order - especially against unarmed Singaporeans - will result in footage that will go viral worldwide. For maximum impact and for strategic ambiguity, the SPF should have simply written "Disperse or Die". That would get the message across.

Sensing a need to protect his position, the new PM realises he has a powerful tool at his disposal - the Gurkha Contingent which is said to report to PMO directly. Word of simmering dissent among SAF officers eventualy reaches the Internal Security Department (ISD), which continues to be the eyes and ears of the government - be it MIW dominated or not.

The PM has studied the force ratios. He knows his position is secure as the GC's full strength of 2,000-plus officers, which includes the elite G Force and wheeled armoured vehicles make the GC a praetorian guard that can hedge against any coup attempt by the SAF.

He takes preemptive and preventive action, ordering ISD to execute an island-wide sweep of dissenters. MIW loyalists are rounded up as the purge continues. The revamped mainstream media can be relied on to look at such internal security sweeps with rose-tinted glasses. It fetes the purge as a necessary step to put Singapore on a firm footing for future progress and prosperity.

In the meantime, the city-state continues to languish as voters who wanted to teach the MIW a vital lesson in GE 2016 got what they wished for.

This is Year 0 and Singaporeans have gotten the government they deserve.