Kill boxes can be established the moment hostilities are declared.
But kill boxes have one critical implementation weakness: It takes time to populate these patches of land and sky, demarcated in length, width and height as a “box” where military assets can hunt and kill their opponents (hence the name). How the opening minutes of a hot-war are orchestrated could therefore prove decisive to either side.
Every second counts. And both sides would be aware of this critical window.
Fighter aircraft - even those capable of supersonic speeds - will take time to reach their patrol areas. And if the kill box needs to cater for the possibility of dealing with the opponent’s long-range assets like rocket artillery, this would necessitate a longer transit to a kill box that could be overlaid on unsecured territory, say 80km to 100km from the peacetime border.
Rotary wing assets like attack helicopters and transport helicopters with commando teams would need even more time to arrive on station. And unlike fighters that can fly high and fast, attack and transport helos are likely to pass MANPADS SAM belts that could whittle down their number.
Slower still are the unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The surveillance equipment on propellor-driven UAVs form a vital part of the “sensor” part in the sensor-to-shooter loop, as noted previously by this blog, kementah.blogspot.com. The effectiveness of active kill boxes cannot be optimised without the presence of these eyes in the sky or commando teams on the ground.
When fully deployed with assets that have been properly trained, organised, equipped, integrated and supported, kill boxes can be devastatingly effective. At least in theory…
During the 1991 US-led Operation Desert Storm, however, kill boxes which used military technology of that era to hunt for Iraqi Scud missile launchers did not find a single TEL. And kill box sensors like E-3 Sentry AWACS, E-8 Joint STARS, and reconnaissance satellites had the benefit of operating over desert terrain that was largely flat, open and with sparse cover.
The implementation of kill boxes over contested terrain with thick jungle and vast plantation tracts is untested. The targets within a kill box would be hard to find, even with foliage penetration sensors. Surveillance assets are also liable to active and passive efforts at deceiving the sensor operators.
The concept of operations where intelligence assets in the air (i.e. UAVs) and boots on the ground (i.e. commando teams and/or military intelligence teams) can be first in, ready and waiting in an established kill box, is wishful and unrealistic. It works fine during scripted combined live-fire exercises. Try that during a period of tension before hostilities have been declared and it might constitute a casus beli.
And even after assets have been safely inserted and the kill box declared active, the steps needed to establish the kill chain where sensors see what they need to see before target handover to the shooters (fighters or artillery) will need time too. Even with well-trained and tightly-coordinated assets, kill chains are not instantaneous.
The time needed to complete a kill chain must be added to the time required to populate a kill box after H-hour is initiated. It would not be far-fetched to see defending forces have a time dividend of under an hour to marshal and deploy forces needed to generate and sustain a decisive response.
From the defender’s point of view, however, the opening gambit also brings many considerations that can complicate military command and control.
Shoot or don’t shoot? Commanders would obviously require authorisation to launch. More critically, commanders would need irrefutable proof that hostilities have indeed broken out. The pivot from period of tension to an all-out war is therefore complicated and subject to the fog of war that could delay, disrupt or degrade the decision-making process at higher HQ level.
Rocket artillery, once in the air, cannot be recalled unlike an air strike. And the state-of-the-art for contemporary systems precludes any option for command detonation that would see an outgoing rocket barrage self destruct. The decision to launch rocket artillery during an unthinkable scenario that has no historical precedent for the combatants involved is therefore fraught with uncertainty.
One can imagine the tension in the command post as the battle staff watch the gathering storm. Large formations of strike aircraft and helos are hard to hide. Air defence radars would see them mass over their holding areas. And reports of cross border incursions before any weapons are released by intruding aircraft must be tempered with caution and restraint: Are such incursions merely posturing to test one’s defences or do they signal something more sinister, such as an all-out attack?
Command and control must also be intact and ready to initiate a response without delay - not easy when the enemy might aim to knock out one’s C2 assets in the opening gambit.
One can expect orders to be relayed from the political leadership to military HQ, then to the formation that has operational control of rocket regiments, and thence to the individual batteries and fire units themselves.
With the clock ticking, steps that lead to smooth execution of the strategic intent would maximise the value of that precious time dividend.
The time dividend that exists before distant kill boxes are filled is a potential ace card, a one-time only advantage that disappears the moment assets are fully installed.
Astute commanders would aim to maximise efforts at detecting and destroying their opponent before that time dividend is gone.
Mengesan Memusnah.
11 March 2023 update: Books Kinokuniya in Singapore has stocked Pukul Habis. Please visit its main store in Ngee Ann City or Bugis Junction, or check the Kinokuniya online store here. The title should be available via Kinokuniya Malaysia soon. Please enquire with the KL store.
1 Dec 2022 update: The war story, Pukul Habis, explores the employment of kill boxes in fictional wartime scenarios. Now available from Amazon sites that serve your location. "Look Inside" function on some sites shows sample pages.
Singapore: https://bit.ly/3XJzInH
Australia: https://amzn.to/3ViaX0i
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Sweden: https://bit.ly/3GWq7UI
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